With Personal Assets Trust (LSE: PNL), Capital Gearing (LSE: CGT) and Ruffer (LSE: RICA) all losing value after inflation, many investors who turned to wealth preservation trusts over the past five years will have been disappointed.
In that time, UK inflation – as defined by the consumer price index (CPI) – has averaged 5% per year, or 27.5%. Meanwhile, Personal Assets is up 20.8% on a net asset value (NAV) basis to the end of August or 3.85% per year. Ruffer has gained 20% (3.7% per year) and Capital Gearing has returned 11.5% (2.2% per year).
The key selling point of these trusts is to protect wealth in all market environments. You would not expect them to outperform during such a strong bull market for stocks, but even so, these returns look underwhelming set alongside simple, low-risk alternatives. For example, the Royal London Short-Term Money Market Fund has returned 3.7% per year over the past five years.
Try 6 free issues of MoneyWeek today
Get unparalleled financial insight, analysis and expert opinion you can profit from.
Start your trial
Sign up for MoneyWeek’s free twice-daily newsletter.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Long-term readers will know that Personal Assets Trust has been a core holding in the MoneyWeek investment trust portfolio since its inception in 2012. It was included because its defensive mandate complemented the other, equity-heavy trusts in the portfolio. And historically, managers Sebastian Lyon and Charlotte Yonge of Troy Asset Management have done a good job of protecting capital. The trust has returned 62.7% on a NAV basis (versus inflation of 41.7%) over ten years, and 247.4% (versus inflation of 66.7%) since Troy took charge in March 2009. So why have recent returns been weaker?
Personal Assets Trust is trailing the bull market
Personal Assets Trust invests across a range of asset classes. At present, stocks are about 40% of the portfolio, inflation-linked bonds roughly 30%, conventional bonds about 20% and gold around 10%. This has varied significantly – in the latest quarterly report, the managers note that the percentage in stocks has varied between the low-seventies in 2009 and the low-twenties in 2022.
This points to the first headwind; the equity allocation has been relatively low at a time when stocks are booming. To make matters worse, the trust favours cash-generative, high-quality equities, but we are not in a market that favours such stocks or offers much help to stockpickers.
Instead, the top-ten tech stocks account for over 40% of the US S&P 500. US equities account for over 70% of the MSCI World. The result of this concentration is that big tech accounted for 53% of the market's return in 2025, says JPMorgan. It is all but impossible for Troy's strategy to keep up in this scenario.
A higher-for-longer interest rate environment
At the same time, we have moved into a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Personal Assets Trust did well in the zero-interest-rate environment of the 2010s and early 2020s, but cash is now a higher hurdle to beat. To make things trickier for bond investors, longer-term bonds have plunged as long-term expectations for interest rates have risen. This applies to both conventional bonds and inflation-linked ones.
Personal Assets Trust currently holds very short-dated bonds with an average duration of 2.5 years (a bond's duration is the weighted average time to receive all the promised cash flows, both interest and principal). So its portfolio is far less exposed to higher rates than a typical bond fund. Still, this positioning may make it hard to earn much more than a near-cash return from its bonds in the short term (although short-dated inflation-linked bonds should quickly pass on any inflation spike).
The timing of the 2021-2022 inflation surge, rapid rate rises and unruly market adjustment in response means five-year records should be interpreted with caution. Three-year returns look better (22.7%, versus 8.8% for CPI). Still, investors – including us – need to watch these trusts to see if they will now bring what they promise to a portfolio again.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
