The oil-price rally may run out of puff
The Brent crude oil price hit its highest level since May 2019, fuelled by optimism about economic reopening. But the rally might not last.
Brent crude oil was trading at over $71 a barrel this week, its highest level since May 2019. The latest leg of the rally was due to Opec+, a group of major producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The group has been collectively withholding millions of barrels of daily production from world markets in order to prop up prices. Last week they agreed to maintain their existing plan to unwind those curbs slowly rather than upping production more quickly to take advantage of higher prices.
The surge in crude has also been fuelled by optimism about economic reopening, says Patti Domm for CNBC. America has now entered its summer “driving season”. Reopening economies mean global demand should grow by seven million barrels per day (mbpd) between the first and third quarter, says Daniel Yergin of IHS Markit (worldwide consumption was 91mbpd last year). Even a return of Iranian supply – currently barred by US sanctions – to the world market would be absorbed by the ongoing demand spike. Oil is heading for “a hot summer”.
Not so fast, says The Economist. The higher prices go the more incentive US shale producers have to get back in the game. Floods of US shale oil have kept a cap on previous oil rallies. Higher prices will also encourage individual Opec+ members to cheat on their commitments by pumping more crude than they promised. Opec+ has been disciplined so far; it might not last.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
-
Will “Liberation Day” strike again?
Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause comes to an end on 9 July. Can we expect further market turmoil?
-
Israel claims victory in the '12-day war' with Iran
Donald Trump may have announced a ceasefire in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, but what comes next depends on what happens internally in Iran
-
Oil price stays steady as tensions in Middle East boils over
Oil prices surged after Israel's attack on Iran, but the global market for the commodity is forecast to remain well-supplied until 2030
-
The British railway industry is in rude health – here's why investors should jump aboard
The railway industry has bounced back from the devastating impact of the pandemic and is entering a new phase of development – and profitability
-
Infrastructure investing: a haven of stable growth amid market turmoil
From booming construction in emerging markets to digital and green transitions, the infrastructure sector offers security, returns and long-term opportunities
-
The costly myth of “sell in May”
Opinion May 2025's strong returns for US stocks have once again shown that putting too much weight on seasonal patterns will only make investors poorer, says Max King
-
Who’s driving Tesla?
As Elon Musk steps back from government with his eyes on the stars, investors ask if he’s still behind the wheel at his electric-car maker.
-
Investment opportunities in the world of Coca-Cola
There is far more to Coca-Cola than just one giant firm. The companies that bottle and distribute the ubiquitous soft drink are promising investments in their own right.
-
Streaming services are the new magic money tree for investors – but for how long?
Opinion Streaming services are in full bloom and laden with profits, but beware – winter is coming, warns Matthew Lynn
-
'Pension funds shouldn't be pushed into private equity sector'
Opinion The private-equity party is over, so don't push pension funds into the sector, says Merryn Somerset Webb.