Mexico election 2024: first female president elected
Claudia Sheinbaum will become Mexico’s first female president. But what will her win mean for the country?

Left-winger Claudia Sheinbaum will be Mexico’s next president after an electoral landslide. Sheinbaum secured between 58% and 60% of the vote in Sunday’s presidential election, compared with about 28% for her main conservative rival.
Sitting president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO) was prevented from seeking re-election by term limits, with Sheinbaum pledging to carry forward his political programme. AMLO is hugely popular, but has had a fraught relationship with investors during his six-year term in power.
Nevertheless, the country’s IPC stock index has gained more than a fifth over the past five years, while economic growth has been creditable. That’s not a bad showing given AMLO’s background as “a self-proclaimed leftist revolutionary”, says Barron’s. While social spending has risen, he has avoided budget splurges for most of his presidency.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Debt remains a reasonable 50% of GDP. Mexico has been the biggest winner of the US-China trade war, which has seen vehicle and electronics manufacturers scramble to relocate to America’s southern neighbour. AMLO’s legacy might prove a poisoned chalice, says The Economist. Gang violence is rampant and corruption is as rife as ever. Yet Mexicans were sceptical that the opposition would do a better job, and many working-class and rural voters are “in thrall” to the charismatic AMLO and Morena, the governing party.
Will Claudia Sheinbaum bring change?
Mexican markets have been in party mode, says Michael Stott in the Financial Times. Stock issuance tripled last year and corporate bond sales were the highest in eight years. It's been argued that Sheinbaum offers continuity with “a dash of technocratic modernity”. But the Mexican “revellers” have been ignoring some rather “large elephants” in the room.
Cartels now control an estimated third of the nation’s territory, by one estimate, and public finances have weakened after AMLO ditched austerity to engage in a pre-election spending bonanza – the country is now running its highest fiscal deficit since 1988. Mexico boasts “a rising middle class” and “enviable demographics, with a median age of 30”, says Mary Anastasia O’Grady in The Wall Street Journal. But economic progress has come “despite AMLO, not because of him”.
His endless feuding with courts that blocked his orders has undermined the rule of law. Now Sheinbaum is championing reforms such as direct elections to the Supreme Court that could steamroller the last remaining opposition to Morena. The ruling party also secured a two-thirds supermajority of the seats in the Mexican lower house and almost as many in the Senate, leaving it well-placed to pass constitutional amendments.
That prospect triggered an earthquake in Mexican markets on Monday, says John Authers on Bloomberg. The S&P Mexico Bolsa index plunged almost 10% in dollar terms, its third worst day in two decades. The sharp sell-off is “probably” an overreaction, but there’s no doubt that the prospect of Mexico taking an authoritarian turn is “terrifying” investors.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
-
Rightmove: UK asking prices drop as market adjusts to higher stamp duty costs
Sellers are coming to market with lower asking prices to attract buyers amid a glut of supply
-
8 of the best houses for sale with outdoor swimming pools
The best houses for sale with outdoor swimming pools – from a family house in Wimbledon Village, London, to a 1640s mansion in Derbyshire with a heated swimming pool in the grounds
-
US and China reach a ceasefire in their trade war after talks in London
The US and China's trading relationship – the most important one in the global economy – is back on track. Will the truce last?
-
Judicial elections: will Mexico’s bold political experiment come at a cost?
Mexico's historic judicial elections attracted little attention, but the implications could be far-reaching
-
Mohammed bin Salman: The new face of Saudi Arabia
Under the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, the kingdom has pursued ambitious reforms to transform itself into a thriving 21st-century economy
-
Can Pope Leo plug a worrying black hole in the Vatican’s finances?
Pope Leo, the new head of the Catholic Church, takes responsibility not just for 1.4 billion souls, but also for a complex multinational business in deep financial trouble.
-
Doug and Mary Perkins: Specsavers’ clear-sighted founders
Helped by the deregulation of the sector in the 1980s and brilliant advertising, Mary Perkins and her husband Doug have taken Specsavers to the top of the optometry market
-
Greg Abel: Warren Buffett’s heir takes the throne
Greg Abel is considered a safe pair of hands as he takes centre stage at Berkshire Hathaway. But he arrives after one of the hardest acts to follow in investment history, Warren Buffett. Can he thrive?
-
Who will be the next Warren Buffett?
Opinion There won’t be another Warren Buffett. Times have changed, and the opportunities are no longer there, says Matthew Lynn.
-
What will the unravelling of US-China trade mean for the economy?
What will a US-China decoupling mean for the global economy?