Pent-up consumer demand is a “coiled spring” after months of lockdown
Households across 21 rich countries have built up excess savings of $3trn because of Covid lockdowns and stimulus packages. And they're itching to spend it.
The total net worth of US households in the final quarter of last year was $122.9trn, says Justin Lahart in The Wall Street Journal. The figure had climbed from $111.4trn a year before. That’s unusual for a recession: after 2008 US household wealth fell and “then took years to recover”. The gains have been driven by rising stockmarkets and property prices, but Americans also have more cash on hand: $2.8trn, a 21% annual increase.
Households across 21 rich countries saved about $6trn during the first nine months of last year, says The Economist. That is roughly double what they would probably have put aside absent Covid-19, generating “excess savings” of $3trn. The rise in global savings does not follow the same pattern everywhere. In the UK and the eurozone it has been driven by lower expenditure owing to closed restaurants and more modest holidays. In Japan and the US, by contrast, it represents a rise in household income thanks to government stimulus cheques.
The US stimulus model has also particularly helped lower-income groups, who are more likely than the wealthy to spend rather than stash extra cash. The US consumer is back in the driving seat of the world economy.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
In the UK, households have put aside £160bn in excess savings during the pandemic, or 12% of GDP, says Sanjay Raja in a Deutsche Bank note. Credit-card debt is also down by nearly 20% over the past year. These gains have been captured mostly by middle- and higher-income earners, with lower income groups reporting taking on more debt. Around 5%-10% of that savings pile is set to be spent over the coming quarters, delivering a “0.5% to 1% boost to GDP”. The impetus from excess savings will be “the driving force behind” the UK recovery this year.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
-
The most influential people of 2025Here are the most influential people of 2025, from New York's mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to Japan’s Iron Lady Sanae Takaichi
-
Millions of parents are missing out on up to £720 a year in extra pension cash – are you affected?A mum who narrowly missed out on the pension boost said she “never knew the government rule existed” and wants other parents to use it
-
Market predictions for 2026: Will Dubai introduce an income tax?Opinion My 2026 predictions, from a supermarket merger to Dubai introducing an income tax and Britain’s journey back to the 1970s
-
The steady rise of stablecoinsInnovations in cryptocurrency have created stablecoins, a new form of money. Trump is an enthusiastic supporter, but its benefits are not yet clear
-
Goodwin: A superlative British manufacturer to buy nowVeteran engineering group Goodwin has created a new profit engine. But following its tremendous run, can investors still afford the shares?
-
A change in leadership: Is US stock market exceptionalism over?US stocks trailed the rest of the world in 2025. Is this a sign that a long-overdue shift is underway?
-
Modern Monetary Theory and the return of magical thinkingThe Modern Monetary Theory is back in fashion again. How worried should we be?
-
Metals and AI power emerging marketsThis year’s big emerging market winners have tended to offer exposure to one of 2025’s two winning trends – AI-focused tech and the global metals rally
-
King Copper’s reign will continue – here's whyFor all the talk of copper shortage, the metal is actually in surplus globally this year and should be next year, too
-
The coming collapse in the jobs marketOpinion Once the Employment Bill becomes law, expect a full-scale collapse in hiring, says Matthew Lynn