Jim Reid: an ”age of disorder” is looming
The world is headed for a new “age of disorder”, says Jim Reid, the veteran multi-asset strategist at Deutsche Bank, in the latest edition of his annual Long-Term Asset Return Study.
“Economic cycles come and go, but sitting above them are the wider structural super-cycles that shape everything from economies to asset prices, politics, and our general way of life.” The current super-cycle “has been gradually fraying at the edges over the last half-decade” and we are likely to look back on 2020 as its end.
There have been five super-cycles in modern times, reckon Reid and his team: the first era of globalisation (1860-1914), war and depression (1914-1945), the Bretton Woods agreement (1945-1971), the arrival of high inflation (1970-1980) and the second age of globalisation (1980-2020). This last era was long and favourable for investors: “The best combined asset-price growth of any era in history, with equity and bond returns very strong across the board.”
But the new era promises upheaval, driven by eight key themes: US-China tension, a make-or-break decade for Europe, the growing allure of money printing and modern monetary theory (see left) in response to high debt, less-stable inflation (whether deflation or high inflation), greater inequality, a growing intergenerational divide, the climate-change clash, and the impact of technology on how we live and what that means for our cities. This is likely to threaten current high global valuations. “Simply extrapolating past trends could be the biggest mistake you make
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.
-
Families suffer £20,000 lost income growth – are you feeling the pinch?
Average incomes for working age families have increased by just 7% in the past two decades, research suggests
-
How to achieve a secure retirement, as more retirees admit to struggling with debt
Twenty-six percent of retirees now have unsecured debt – a sharp rise compared to two years ago – with many underestimating how much a typical retirement costs
-
'Ride the recovery in emerging markets': Gustavo Medeiros of Ashmore Group tells MoneyWeek
Interview What's the outlook for emerging markets? Gustavo Medeiros, head of research at Ashmore Group, gives his analysis and reviews progress in developing economies
-
'The City's big bet on green finance fails to pay out'
Opinion Insurers and banks are backing away from “green finance”, and there is not much sign of the green boom we were promised. That’s a problem for the City
-
Why is English football thriving – and can it last?
What has gone so right for English football? The national team has found its feet; the Premier League is swimming in money and profits are soaring
-
Should you invest in Pakistan – the Vietnam of South Asia?
Opinion If Pakistan is now serious about reform, it’s time for investors to buy, says Maryam Cockar
-
'Why you must own gold and Bitcoin'
Opinion The world is dedollarising, and gold and Bitcoin are the only alternatives. Buy now, says Dominic Frisby
-
'Britain is on the road to nowhere under Labour'
Opinion Britain's economy will shake off its torpor and grow robustly, but not under Keir Starmer's leadership, says Max King
-
What are wealth taxes and would they work in Britain?
The Treasury is short of cash and mulling over how it can get its hands on more money to plug the gap. Could wealth taxes do the trick?
-
UK bank stocks are no bargain – here's a safer alternative
Opinion Britain's banking sector faces severe political risks. Switch into this global financials trust instead, says Max King