Jim Reid: an ”age of disorder” is looming
The world is headed for a new “age of disorder”, says Jim Reid, the veteran multi-asset strategist at Deutsche Bank, in the latest edition of his annual Long-Term Asset Return Study.
“Economic cycles come and go, but sitting above them are the wider structural super-cycles that shape everything from economies to asset prices, politics, and our general way of life.” The current super-cycle “has been gradually fraying at the edges over the last half-decade” and we are likely to look back on 2020 as its end.
There have been five super-cycles in modern times, reckon Reid and his team: the first era of globalisation (1860-1914), war and depression (1914-1945), the Bretton Woods agreement (1945-1971), the arrival of high inflation (1970-1980) and the second age of globalisation (1980-2020). This last era was long and favourable for investors: “The best combined asset-price growth of any era in history, with equity and bond returns very strong across the board.”
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
‘Why I have ditched my Help to Buy ISA for cash savings and the stock market’Without the 25% bonus, my Help to Buy ISA is effectively redundant, says MoneyWeek writer Sam Walker.
-
Is your inheritance tax allowance cut if you sell to downsize or sell your home to pay for care?Downsizing relief is a little-known benefit that could save your loved ones tens of thousands of pounds in inheritance tax after you’ve died.
-
The steady rise of stablecoinsInnovations in cryptocurrency have created stablecoins, a new form of money. Trump is an enthusiastic supporter, but its benefits are not yet clear
-
Goodwin: A superlative British manufacturer to buy nowVeteran engineering group Goodwin has created a new profit engine. But following its tremendous run, can investors still afford the shares?
-
A change in leadership: Is US stock market exceptionalism over?US stocks trailed the rest of the world in 2025. Is this a sign that a long-overdue shift is underway?
-
Modern Monetary Theory and the return of magical thinkingThe Modern Monetary Theory is back in fashion again. How worried should we be?
-
Metals and AI power emerging marketsThis year’s big emerging market winners have tended to offer exposure to one of 2025’s two winning trends – AI-focused tech and the global metals rally
-
King Copper’s reign will continue – here's whyFor all the talk of copper shortage, the metal is actually in surplus globally this year and should be next year, too
-
The coming collapse in the jobs marketOpinion Once the Employment Bill becomes law, expect a full-scale collapse in hiring, says Matthew Lynn
-
Renewable energy funds are stuck between a ROC and a hard placeRenewable energy funds were hit hard by the government’s subsidy changes, but they have only themselves to blame for their failure to build trust with investors
