“Economic cycles come and go, but sitting above them are the wider structural super-cycles that shape everything from economies to asset prices, politics, and our general way of life.” The current super-cycle “has been gradually fraying at the edges over the last half-decade” and we are likely to look back on 2020 as its end.
There have been five super-cycles in modern times, reckon Reid and his team: the first era of globalisation (1860-1914), war and depression (1914-1945), the Bretton Woods agreement (1945-1971), the arrival of high inflation (1970-1980) and the second age of globalisation (1980-2020). This last era was long and favourable for investors: “The best combined asset-price growth of any era in history, with equity and bond returns very strong across the board.”
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
Zoopla: House sales fall for first time in two years as buyers wait for Autumn BudgetThe average price of a house in September was £270,000, down £1,000 from August as the housing market’s Christmas slowdown came early, Zoopla says
-
Number of high-earning women jumps 12% – how to convert income into pensionsMore women than ever are paying the highest rate of tax as record numbers succeed in high paying professional roles. But their pension saving still needs to catch up
-
Yoshiaki Murakami: Japan’s original corporate raiderThe originator of Japanese activism, Yoshiaki Murakami, was disgraced by an insider-trading scandal in 2006. Now, he's back, shaking things up
-
Galliford Try has firm foundations for strong growthBuilder Galliford Try has a finger in a wide range of pies, notably important work in the public sector
-
Card Factory is a stand-out small-cap going cheapIn a digital world, we still value the personal touch. That’s good news for Card Factory, whose unique business model is suited to weather all economic storms
-
How much gold does China have – and how to cash inChina's gold reserves are vastly understated, says Dominic Frisby. So hold gold, overbought or not
-
Debasing Wall Street's new debasement trade ideaThe debasement trade is a catchy and plausible idea, but there’s no sign that markets are alarmed, says Cris Sholto Heaton
-
Europe’s new single stock market is no panaceaOpinion It is hard to see how a single European stock exchange will fix anything. Friedrich Merz is trying his hand at a failed strategy, says Matthew Lynn
-
Should UK schools ban smartphones?The effects of smartphones on young minds are disturbing, with calls for politicians to make school smartphone bans mandatory. Is radical action needed?
-
Are venture-capital trusts worth investing in?Venture-capital trusts are a tax-efficient way to invest in early-stage companies. But are they worth the risk?
