Ireland elections: what happens next?

Tánaiste Micheál Martin TD and An Taoiseach Simon Harris TD during the GAA Hurling All-Ireland Senior Championship Final

(Image credit: Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

published 6 December 2024

Ireland’s political landscape after 29 November's general election looked “strangely familiar”, says Fintan O’Toole in The Guardian.

Familiar, because the two main incumbent parties, Micheál Martin’s Fianna Fail and Simon Harris’s Fine Gael, received almost exactly the same combined share of the vote as they did in 2020, and will therefore continue to govern.

Strange most obviously because Irish voters have “bucked the trend” in this “global year of elections” by failing to give the incumbents a “good kicking”. But also strange, because given that Ireland is enjoying full employment, overflowing public coffers and a booming export-led economy, the endorsement was “lukewarm”. As recently as 2007, the “twins’” combined share of the vote was 70%. It is now 43%.

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Their declining popularity is not, as one might expect, due to a rise in the fortunes of the main opposition party, Sinn Fein, which was, in fact, the “biggest loser”. Its vote share fell from 25% to 20%, partly because support “leached” away to right-wing candidates exploiting anti-immigrant sentiment among voters, and partly because of “internal scandals” that have made the party look “at best incompetent, and at worst cynical”.

What's next for Ireland's political landscape?

So what next? Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have a combined 86 seats, just two short of the 88 needed to secure a majority in the Dail. They could either do a deal with Labour or the Social Democrats – 11 seats each – or with the right-wing party Independent Ireland, which has four, says the BBC's Enda McClafferty.

Another option would be to turn to some of the 16 independents, but that “could mean a less stable coalition” as they would be “more likely to revolt on specific issues”, notes The Guardian’s Lisa O’Carroll. The front runner to be the next taoiseach (prime minister) is Martin, but at this stage, nothing “can be ruled out, as weeks, if not months” of political talks are on the cards.

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Emily has worked as a journalist for more than thirty years and was formerly Assistant Editor of MoneyWeek, which she helped launch in 2000. Prior to this, she was Deputy Features Editor of The Times and a Commissioning Editor for The Independent on Sunday and The Daily Telegraph. She has written for most of the national newspapers including The Times, the Daily and Sunday Telegraph, The Evening Standard and The Daily Mail, She interviewed celebrities weekly for The Sunday Telegraph and wrote a regular column for The Evening Standard. As Political Editor of MoneyWeek, Emily has covered subjects from Brexit to the Gaza war.

Aside from her writing, Emily trained as Nutritional Therapist following her son's diagnosis with Type 1 diabetes in 2011 and now works as a practitioner for Nature Doc, offering one-to-one consultations and running workshops in Oxfordshire.