Russia: a safe haven in eastern Europe?

As cheap credit lines dry up, many countries in Eastern Europe look vulnerable to the subprime crisis. But Russia is a different story. So how can you get in?

Eastern Europe has been a great investment in recent years, with funds such as Elena Shaftan's widely-recommended Jupiter Emerging European Opportunities returning nearly 400% since September 2002, helped by consumer booms across the region. But for how much longer can this winning streak last? Take Hungary, for example, one of the region's key markets. One of the main props behind the boom has been the Swiss carry trade (the less famous cousin of the yen carry trade). At this time last year, Hungarians were snapping up cross-border loans based on Swiss francs. With the interest rate in Switzerland sitting at 1.75%, loans could be secured at better than half the interest rate on the local currency, the forint in fact, 80% of new Hungarian mortgages are in Swiss francs.

But as with everywhere else in the world, the cheap credit lines are beginning to dry up. Swiss interest rates are now sitting at 2.5%, and the forint has fallen by 9.8% against the Swiss franc in the past year, sending mortgage payments soaring. "We're now seeing a vicious cycle where all this goes into reverse. The impact could be enormous," says Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas in The Daily Telegraph. Latvia has been the first to feel the pain. The country's banks have halved lending to customers, says The Wall Street Journal, as free and easy lending led to a 70% jump in Riga house prices in 2006, even while wages rose only 33%. Like Hungary, its economy has been over-reliant on a consumer boom fuelled by cheap money. And now that that's ending, Latvia is very vulnerable along with other countries in the region to the sub-prime loan crisis, says S&P, the credit ratings agency.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up
MoneyWeek

MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.