The markets' 'group hug' for stocks looks overdone

The British and American stock markets have both enjoyed strong rallies. But don't celebrate just yet.

The bulls are running rampant. America's Dow Jones Index, after its best start to the year since 1987, is near a new record high. The FTSE 100 has eclipsed 6,300 for the first time since 2008. The US Vix index, a reflection of the expected volatility in the market, is at April 2007 levels, showing that investors haven't been this relaxed since before the financial crisis.

But "when everyone stops worrying about safety that is when you should worry", says Matt King of Citigroup. The rally isn't completely unjustified: American economic data and earnings have been better of late and lawmakers have postponed a potential spat over the debt ceiling. Europe is looking calmer and optimism among German executives has fuelled hope that Germany will avoid recession. Chinese data has improved.

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