Why Europe's bull has legs
Western European markets have boomed over the past four years, hitting a six-year high in February. So can the bull run endure?
Western European markets have boomed over the past four years, hitting a six-year high in February. So can the bull run endure? Over the past few years, European firms have restructured and cut costs Germany's unit labour costs have fallen by 2.6% over the past four years and there is still mileage in this story: in Germany, the "full benefits of corporate restructuring have not yet fed through to earnings and share prices", says Julian Pendock of Bedlam Asset Management.
And the macro picture has been improving. The eurozone economy has resisted US weakness of late, expanding by 2.7% last year. The European Commission has lifted its 2007 growth forecast to 2.4%, thanks largely to a revived Germany. The IfW institute expects growth to eclipse last year's 2.7%, thanks to exports and business investment, while unemployment at a five-year low bodes well for consumption. Earnings growth, while expected to fall to around 7% this year from last year's double-digit pace, is likely to come in at double the US figure this quarter; dividends have exceeded expectations; mergers and acquisitions continue to provide support; and European markets look reasonably priced on a p/e of under 14. Merrill Lynch sees scope for European equities to produce a total return of 11% this year.
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