The long bull still has legs

The S&P 500 eclipsed its 2000 record close last week and most other major markets have been hitting seven-year highs. But it's not all good news.

Most major markets have been closing in on their 2000 peaks. Last week, though, the world's most widely watched stock index America's S&P 500 finally closed above its 2000 record of 1,527. But foreign investors won't be celebrating just yet; in euro terms, the index is down by about 30%. What's more, adjusting for inflation, local investors are still out of pocket by 20%, says investment adviser Rathbones.

Still, it's good news for the bulls, who have also been encouraged by the fact that long-time bear Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, has changed his tune. Russell, who "has a stellar long-term market timing record", as Mark Hulbert points out on Marketwatch.com, turned bearish on the secular trend in late 1999 and stuck to this view until last month. He had dismissed the upswing of the past four years as a bear rally within a primary downtrend. But he has now decided that the Dow's post-2000 slide was merely a correction in the bull market that started in 1982 and that its final, most speculative phase in which small investors, hitherto wary, rush into stocks lies ahead.

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