Stock markets face a 'wall of worry'

Despite unrest in the Middle East fuelling a higher oil price, the disaster in Japan and another bail-out in Europe, major developed-world stock markets have risen sharply since mid-March. But the 'wall of worry' is getting higher.

"It's often said that bull markets climb a wall of worry," says Neil Hume in the FT. There's certainly "been plenty to fret about". Despite unrest in the Middle East fuelling a higher oil price, the disaster in Japan and another bail-out in Europe, major developed-world stockmarkets have risen sharply since mid-March.

But the wall of worry is getting higher. For starters, the boost from surprisingly strong profit growth is set to slow. Telis Demos of the FT notes that S&P 500 earnings per share expanded by 41% in 2010, but a figure of 13% year-on-year is being pencilled in for this quarter. Strong margins have been a key reason for positive US earnings surprises in recent quarters but in most sectors they are now above the 2007 peak, says Lex in the FT. They look "unsustainably high", given that "post-crisis cost-cutting is probably over now" and commodity prices are climbing rapidly. The consensus expects margins to widen further this year, which looks "mightily optimistic".

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