Bear markets declines of at least 20% tend to bottom in the first or second year of a presidential term, says Sy Harding in Barron's. That's because new administrations typically "do whatever it takes" to strengthen the economy by the time they're up for re-election.
Since 1917 there have been 19 bear markets and 15 fit this pattern. Three of the four exceptions came during a president's second term, when there was no pressure to be re-elected.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
Will “Liberation Day” strike again?Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause comes to an end on 9 July. Can we expect further market turmoil?
-
Israel claims victory in the '12-day war' with IranDonald Trump may have announced a ceasefire in the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, but what comes next depends on what happens internally in Iran
