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The charts that matter: the US dollar continues lower
As markets continue to believe that a cut in US interest rates is just a matter of time, the US dollar continued its fall this week. John Stepek looks at how that's affected the charts that matter most to the global economy.
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No new podcast this week, but if you missed Merryn and I talking about Neil Woodford's plunge from grace, catch up here and do leave a comment beneath.
Meanwhile, Dominic and I recorded a webinar with currency specialist Alex Edwards of OFX this week. It was an hour of free-ranging discussion on global trade, foreign exchange markets, interest rates, and how British businesses can protect themselves from the impact of unexpected political shocks on currency costs. Catch up with it here.
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Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
The yield curve (remind yourself of what it is here) ticked higher this week. The chart below shows the difference (the "spread") between what it costs the US government to borrow money over ten years and what it costs over two.
Once this number turns negative, the yield curve has inverted, which almost always signals a recession (although perhaps not for up to two years).
The curve between the three month and the ten year is still inverted. But with markets betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, the rate on the two year has been falling faster than the rate on the ten-year. And so the yield curve between those two is steeper than it has been in a while.
(The gap between the yield on the ten-year US Treasury and that on the two-year, going back three months)
Gold (measured in dollar terms) had a solid week, probably helped slightly by geopolitical jitters.
(Gold: three months)
The US dollar index a measure of the strength of the dollar against a basket of the currencies of its major trading partners continued to fall as markets continue to believe that a Fed cut is just a matter of time.
(DXY: three months)
The number of yuan (or renminbi) to the US dollar (USDCNY) has crawled closer to the critical 7.0 level that would suggest China might be on the verge of devaluing the currency.
(Chinese yuan to the US dollar: three months)
Ten-year yields on major developed-market bonds were little changed, although Germany continues to plumb new depths of negative yield amid fears for its economy.
(Ten-year US Treasury yield: three months)
(Ten-year Japanese government bond yield: three months)
(Ten-year bund yield: three months)
Copper was little changed this week.
(Copper: three months)
The Aussie dollar our favourite indicator of the state of the Chinese economy slipped this week. That's probably more down to Australia's weak economy than China's woes.
(Aussie dollar vs US dollar exchange rate: three months)
Cryptocurrency bitcoin edged (by its standards, at least) higher this week.
(Bitcoin: ten days)
Unemployment is a lagging indicator (it doesn't start rising until the economy is already getting worse). It's ticking higher now, with the caveat that it's still very low.
Eight weeks ago, US jobless claims hit a fresh low on the four-week moving average measure, dropping to 201,500. This week, the moving average ticked higher to 217,750, while weekly claims came in at 222,000, a rise on last week.
US stocks typically don't peak until after this four-week moving average has hit a low for the cycle, and a recession tends to follow about a year later (always remembering that this is a tiny sample size).
(US jobless claims, four-week moving average: since January 2016)
The oil price (as measured by Brent crude, the international/European benchmark) had a volatile week, with higher-than-expected US crude stockpiles clashing with rising tensions between the US and Iran.
(Brent crude oil: three months)
Internet giant Amazon continued to recover rapidly from its May plunge.
(Amazon: three months)
Electric car group Tesla continued its recent bounce too, in line with the wider market.
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