Betting on politics: Australia catches out the bookies
The result of the Australian election proved to be an embarrassment for one bookmaker, says Matthew Partridge.
Saturday's election in Australia proved embarrassing for bookmaker Sportsbet, which not only sustained huge losses on winning bets on the Liberal-National coalition, but also incorrectly paid out on a Labor victory two days early. Overall, it is reported to have losta total of A$5.3m.
Indeed, not only did the coalition win in each of those constituencies, but the Liberal candidates managed to increase their share of the vote in Aston and Hughes. Even in Casey, the closest of thefour contests, Liberal Tony Smith still managed to win on second preferences by a margin of just under 9%. Admittedly, since the bets were at short odds, they didn't make a huge amount of money, but a return of 29% is still pretty decent.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Given that the Australian polling companies came infor a tremendous amount of criticism in the aftermath of Morrison's victory, it may seem strange that one of the lessons from this election from a betting perspective is to pay attention to opinion polls. If you had looked at them closely you would have seen that Labor's lead narrowed aspolling day approach, and was never big enough to justify the landslide that some bookies and betting markets were predicting.
-
The UK areas which saw biggest jump in asking prices in 2025 – is yours on the list?We look at the UK areas where asking prices rose the most last year.
-
‘Sandwich generation’ carers losing £6,000 a year to support elderly relativesMiddle-aged adults are often caught between caring for children or grandchildren and their elderly parents, leaving them taking time out of the workforce and facing a huge hit to wages while they are still trying to save for retirement. We look at the true cost of caring.
