Australia confounds the pundits

The centre-right retains power on a tax-cutting agenda. Matthew Partridge reports.


Scott Morrison: "the hero of the hour"
(Image credit: 2019 Getty Images)

In the run up to Saturday's election in Australia, the Labor party was ascendent in every opinion poll, with almost all pundits expecting it to remove the Liberal-National coalition from power, says Katharine Murphy in The Guardian. When the votes were counted, Prime Minister Scott Morrison ended up "the hero of the hour", managing "to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat". This means that after three years of turmoil, which has seen both major parties replace their leader, Australia has ended up "back where it started when former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull won the 2016 election by one seat".

No appetite for change

Morrison drew a contrast between his plans for "tax cuts for low- and middle-income households" and Labor's promises "to increase levies on capital gains, superannuation [that is, pensions] and family trusts to pay for social spending", and that helped him to victory, says The Times. However, the decisive issue was probably climate change. Morrison exploited economic modelling that "purported to show that the 45% reduction in carbon emissions proposed by Labor would cost 167,000 jobs". And Labor's opposition to the planned Carmichael coal mine led tolarge swings to the coalition in important Queensland marginals.

Morrison's victory could therefore have "global implications", saysThe Straits Times. Australia's share of global emissions may make it "a minnow" compared with China or the US, the world's top two greenhouse-gas polluters. But Morrison's exhortation to voters to choose between "jobs or climate" means that the Carmichael project is now much more likely to go ahead. If it does, "billions more tonnes" of coal will be available to export and burn in places such as India, "fuelling global warming and a growing climate crisis".

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The election outcome in Australia has therefore revealed "the urgent need to broaden the message for reducing carbon emissions, and to separate it from the divisive culture wars afflicting Western democracies", says The New York Times. Morrison's victory "does not necessarily mean he will do nothing about greenhouse gases". Indeed, with growing pressure from the young for action on climate change, and from the candidates who pushed a climate-change agenda who did win, there's still a chance that he could confound the pundits and take a lead on the issue. After all, Australia is a country "where the ravages ofman-made climate change are most evident".

Dr Matthew Partridge

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri