Farage victory would tip the balance
A Brexit Party win may concentrate minds in parliament and break the stalemate. Emily Hohler reports.

MPs will vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit compromise in the first week of June, regardless of whether the government and Labour have reached an agreement by then, says the BBC. Downing Street says a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement is "imperative" if it is to be on the statute book before the Commons' summer recess starts in late July. If the deal is defeated and Labour says it will vote it down without a cross-party agreement the UK is set for a no-deal exit or the revocation of Article 50.
Cross-party talks, which are intended to address future EU ties rather than alter the Withdrawal Agreement, which Brussels says is non-negotiable, began in April after May's deal was rejected three times by MPs. Although May says the government would propose a close customs arrangement with the EU, Labour is seeking a permanent customs union. Senior Tories warn that if May cedes ground on this she risks losing the "loyal middle" of her party, says Sean Morrison in the Evening Standard.
Changing political landscape
May's allies believe the European elections could tip the balance. If Nigel Farage's Brexit Party takes first place as expected on 23 May, Labour MPs may be scared into backing the deal. Success for Farage would also "embolden the crash-out faction of the Conservatives", saysAndrew Rawnsley in The Observer.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
"Mass defections of Tory voters" will make the struggle to succeed May a "competition to see who can sound the most Farage-iste". The "most effective antidote" would be a "powerful result for the parties unequivocally committed to reversing Brexit" the Lib Dems, the Greens and Change UK and although it is too late for them to unite and field a common slate of candidates (which could have helped them secure ten more seats, notes Jack Maidment in The Daily Telegraph), it is "not too late to behave as friendly allies". Since the "bulk" of Labour party members and MPs are against Brexit, voting Labour will ultimately be "counted on the anti-Farage side of the ledger" too, claims Tony Blair in The Guardian. "But whatever you do, vote." This is "a vote for the Farage Brexit or against it".
For now, all Farage has to do to "harvest a large haul of votes" is to "repeatedly cry the word betrayal'", says Rawnsley. It is "pointless" to mock the Brexit Party for its lack of a manifesto. There is likely to be plenty of time for that, says Matthew Lynn in The Daily Telegraph. If May and Corbyn fail to "cook up a deal", the Brexit wrangling could drag on for years and the Brexit Party will become a "part of the political landscape".
To endure, it should come out in favour of a managed no-deal exit and prepare for "lots of side deals" from visa-free travel to customs checks, instead of "one big one". It should "go for zero tariffs" and start unwinding 40 years of EU rules that "didn't work for the UK". The Brexit Party should be pro-enterprise, pro-competition, and "realistic about helping industries and regions that get hit hardest by Brexit. Who knows, it might even be a pretty successful formula."
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.

Emily has worked as a journalist for more than thirty years and was formerly Assistant Editor of MoneyWeek, which she helped launch in 2000. Prior to this, she was Deputy Features Editor of The Times and a Commissioning Editor for The Independent on Sunday and The Daily Telegraph. She has written for most of the national newspapers including The Times, the Daily and Sunday Telegraph, The Evening Standard and The Daily Mail, She interviewed celebrities weekly for The Sunday Telegraph and wrote a regular column for The Evening Standard. As Political Editor of MoneyWeek, Emily has covered subjects from Brexit to the Gaza war.
Aside from her writing, Emily trained as Nutritional Therapist following her son's diagnosis with Type 1 diabetes in 2011 and now works as a practitioner for Nature Doc, offering one-to-one consultations and running workshops in Oxfordshire.
-
What is the 25x retirement rule and does it work?
The 25x retirement rule has been around for decades but many experts question if it is a suitable strategy
-
When is the self-assessment tax return deadline?
If you are self-employed, rent out a property or earn income from savings or investments, you may need to complete a self-assessment tax return. We run through the deadlines you need to know about
-
Britain’s inflation problem
Inflation in the UK appears to be remaining higher for longer when compared with similar rich countries. Why? And when can we expect a return to normal? Simon Wilson reports.
-
It’s been 16 years, but the UK economy finally has a chance
Opinion The UK economy has been dealing with one crisis after another since 2007. Policymakers now have a chance to fix some of the underlying problems holding back growth.
-
Eurozone inflation hits 10.7% in October
News Inflation across the eurozone hit 10.7% in October. What does it mean for your money?
-
The “plan for growth”: what Truss and Kwarteng got right
Opinion The Tories’ “plan for growth” has got off to a bad start, but their reforms can still transform Britain
-
Kwasi Kwarteng U-turns on top tax rate decision
News Kwasi Kwarteng has U-turned on his top tax rate reduction announced in his mini-Budget at the end of September.
-
A forgotten lesson on the dangers of energy price caps
Analysis Liz Truss’s proposed energy price cap is an ambitious gamble. But a similar programme in Spain ended up being a fiasco, say Max King and Tom Murley. Here, they explain why Truss’s plan could be doomed to failure.
-
Investors should get ready for a political revolution
Opinion Liz Truss will beat Rishi Sunak, cut taxes, and then shake up the Bank of England, says Helen Thomas
-
Don't be scared by economic forecasting
Editor's letter The Bank of England warned last week the UK will tip into recession this year. But predictions about stockmarkets, earnings or macroeconomic trends can be safely ignored, says Andrew Van Sickle.