Features

Betting on politics: May's Brexit deal

The prime minister has a fight on her hands to get her Brexit deal through parliament. Matthew Partridge looks at how the bookies rate her chances.

924-deal-634
Can she get her deal through parliament?

At the moment neither punters nor the bookies are particularly optimistic about the chances of Theresa May's Brexit deal managing to get through the House of Commons. Paddy Power is the only one bothering to offer a bet on the 11 December vote in parliament, and it is quoting 1/5 (83%) on it being rejected by parliament and 3/1 (25%) on it being approved. Betfair and Smarkets seem to be giving an almost even chance that we'll have left the European Union by the planned date of 29 March, with a slight advantage to leave.

The betting markets on May's departure date don't make good news for the prime minister, either, as they aren't particularly optimistic about her chances of surviving in Downing Street beyond next year. Smarkets has the most liquid market with £381,174 traded and it has a near even price of 2.02 (49.5%) on her leaving Downing Street in 2019. Other options are 3.6 (27.78%) on this year, 11.5 (8.7%) on 2020, 18 (5.56%) on 2021, 16 (6.25%) on 2022, and 19.5 (5.1%) on 2023 or later.

If May does go, betting markets are unsure about who will succeed her as leader of the Conservative Party. According to Betfair the favourite is Boris Johnson at 8.4 (11.9%). Sajid Javid is on 9.2 (10.8%), Michael Gove on 9.6 (10.4%), Dominic Raab 9.8 (10.2%) and Jeremy Hunt at 10 (10%). In contrast, "Moggmentum" seems to have stalled, with the price on one-time front runner Jacob Rees-Mogg drifting out to 24 (4.1%).

Recommended

How to prepare your business for Brexit
Small business

How to prepare your business for Brexit

Whether we have a Brexit deal or not, new procedures for importers and exporters will apply from 1 January. Get your business ready now.
27 Nov 2020
Brexit begins: what do the UK and the EU want from a trade deal?
Brexit

Brexit begins: what do the UK and the EU want from a trade deal?

With Brexit now done, the trade talks can begin. But who wants what from a UK/EU trade deal, and how likely are they to get it?
3 Feb 2020
Travel to the EU: how the Brexit deal affects you
Personal finance

Travel to the EU: how the Brexit deal affects you

The Brexit deal will mean some administrative changes when you next travel to the EU. Here are the most important ones.
11 Jan 2021
Plenty more Brexit arguments to be settled yet
Brexit

Plenty more Brexit arguments to be settled yet

Many important negotiations remain to be sealed in our deal with the EU. “No deal is better than a bad deal” is the way to play it, says Matthew Lynn
10 Jan 2021

Most Popular

Of course bitcoin is a bubble – a bubble you can’t ignore
Bitcoin

Of course bitcoin is a bubble – a bubble you can’t ignore

Bitcoin’s wild ride is being called a bubble by many. And it is, says Dominic Frisby. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing. And it’s a bubble in whi…
13 Jan 2021
A simple way to profit from the next big trend change in the markets
Investment strategy

A simple way to profit from the next big trend change in the markets

Change is coming to the markets as the tech-stock bull market of the 2010s is replaced by a new cycle of rising commodity prices. John Stepek explains…
14 Jan 2021
I wish I knew what a SPAC was, but I’m too embarrassed to ask
Too embarrassed to ask

I wish I knew what a SPAC was, but I’m too embarrassed to ask

A financial instrument called a “special purpose acquisition company”, or SPAC for short, is growing increasingly popular in the US stockmarkets. But …
12 Jan 2021