Betting on politics: May's Brexit deal

The prime minister has a fight on her hands to get her Brexit deal through parliament. Matthew Partridge looks at how the bookies rate her chances.

Dr Matthew Partridge
By
published
in Features

924-deal-634

Can she get her deal through parliament?
(Image credit: 2018 Getty Images)

At the moment neither punters nor the bookies are particularly optimistic about the chances of Theresa May's Brexit deal managing to get through the House of Commons. Paddy Power is the only one bothering to offer a bet on the 11 December vote in parliament, and it is quoting 1/5 (83%) on it being rejected by parliament and 3/1 (25%) on it being approved. Betfair and Smarkets seem to be giving an almost even chance that we'll have left the European Union by the planned date of 29 March, with a slight advantage to leave.

The betting markets on May's departure date don't make good news for the prime minister, either, as they aren't particularly optimistic about her chances of surviving in Downing Street beyond next year. Smarkets has the most liquid market with £381,174 traded and it has a near even price of 2.02 (49.5%) on her leaving Downing Street in 2019. Other options are 3.6 (27.78%) on this year, 11.5 (8.7%) on 2020, 18 (5.56%) on 2021, 16 (6.25%) on 2022, and 19.5 (5.1%) on 2023 or later.

If May does go, betting markets are unsure about who will succeed her as leader of the Conservative Party. According to Betfair the favourite is Boris Johnson at 8.4 (11.9%). Sajid Javid is on 9.2 (10.8%), Michael Gove on 9.6 (10.4%), Dominic Raab 9.8 (10.2%) and Jeremy Hunt at 10 (10%). In contrast, "Moggmentum" seems to have stalled, with the price on one-time front runner Jacob Rees-Mogg drifting out to 24 (4.1%).

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up
Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

Latest