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Betting on politics: US mid-term election results

Matthew Partridge reviews his performance betting on the US mid-term elections – with mixed results.

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Martha McSally

The results of the midterm elections in the US are in and they make for mixed reading for this columnist. I made 20 bets (22 if you count them individually). The Senate race in Arizona won't be officially called until after MoneyWeek has gone to press, but at the time of writing Democrat Krysten Sinema looked to be trailing Republican Martha McSally (pictured). Of the remaining 19 bets, I correctly called 15, including the bet on the Democrats taking back the House of Representatives and the Senate races in Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Mississippi, Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Texas.

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I also correctly predicted that Andrew Cuomo would be re-elected as governor of New York, though that was hardly unexpected. Republican Jon Carter narrowly triumphed over Mary Hegar in the 31st District of Texas. Finally, I was also correct to tip Beto O'Rouke getting between 40% and 50% of the vote in Texas.

I also made some notable missteps. Far from being reduced to 50 seats or less, the Republicans will in fact increase the number of Senate seats they hold. Andrew Gillum and Richard Cordray ended up coming short in their contests to become governors of Florida and Ohio respectively. Overall, my 19 combined bets made a profit of 7.5%, though if McSally ends up winning in Arizona it will fall to only 2.5%. If you count the bets individually, I ended up making 2.2%.

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