Betting on politics: US mid-term election results

Matthew Partridge reviews his performance betting on the US mid-term elections – with mixed results.

921_MW_P11_P&E_side

Martha McSally

The results of the midterm elections in the US are in and they make for mixed reading for this columnist. I made 20 bets (22 if you count them individually). The Senate race in Arizona won't be officially called until after MoneyWeek has gone to press, but at the time of writing Democrat Krysten Sinema looked to be trailing Republican Martha McSally (pictured). Of the remaining 19 bets, I correctly called 15, including the bet on the Democrats taking back the House of Representatives and the Senate races in Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Mississippi, Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Texas.

I also correctly predicted that Andrew Cuomo would be re-elected as governor of New York, though that was hardly unexpected. Republican Jon Carter narrowly triumphed over Mary Hegar in the 31st District of Texas. Finally, I was also correct to tip Beto O'Rouke getting between 40% and 50% of the vote in Texas.

I also made some notable missteps. Far from being reduced to 50 seats or less, the Republicans will in fact increase the number of Senate seats they hold. Andrew Gillum and Richard Cordray ended up coming short in their contests to become governors of Florida and Ohio respectively. Overall, my 19 combined bets made a profit of 7.5%, though if McSally ends up winning in Arizona it will fall to only 2.5%. If you count the bets individually, I ended up making 2.2%.

Recommended

The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it
Bitcoin

The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it

The cryptocurrency’s price has soared far beyond its fundamentals, says Matthew Partridge. Here, he looks at how to short bitcoin.
12 Apr 2021
Take a bet on this infrastructure specialist
Trading

Take a bet on this infrastructure specialist

Morgan Sindall will profit from higher infrastructure spending as we emerge from lockdowns. Matthew Partridge picks the best way to play it.
30 Mar 2021
DR Horton: US housebuilder that's piling up profits
Trading

DR Horton: US housebuilder that's piling up profits

US housebuilder DR Horton’s stock rests on firm foundations and looks cheap. Matthew Partridge looks at the best way to play it.
26 Feb 2021
Trading: short Snowflake, a company with its head in the clouds
Trading

Trading: short Snowflake, a company with its head in the clouds

Cloud-computing company Snowflake is absurdly overvalued and its bubble is starting to burst. Matthew Partridge picks the best way to play it.
15 Feb 2021

Most Popular

“Joke” cryptocurrency dogecoin goes to the moon. What’s going on?
Bitcoin

“Joke” cryptocurrency dogecoin goes to the moon. What’s going on?

Dogecoin – a cryptocurrency created as a joke – has risen by more than 9,000% this year alone. Saloni Sardana looks at how something that began as an …
19 Apr 2021
Lab-grown meat: how “moo’s law” will drive innovation
Soft commodities

Lab-grown meat: how “moo’s law” will drive innovation

Jim Mellon and Anthony Chow, co-founders of Aim-listed Agronomics, explain why they believe that “cellular agriculture” will benefit from massive long…
16 Apr 2021
The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it
Bitcoin

The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it

The cryptocurrency’s price has soared far beyond its fundamentals, says Matthew Partridge. Here, he looks at how to short bitcoin.
12 Apr 2021