Betting on politics: US mid-term election results

Matthew Partridge reviews his performance betting on the US mid-term elections – with mixed results.

921_MW_P11_P&E_side

Martha McSally

The results of the midterm elections in the US are in and they make for mixed reading for this columnist. I made 20 bets (22 if you count them individually). The Senate race in Arizona won't be officially called until after MoneyWeek has gone to press, but at the time of writing Democrat Krysten Sinema looked to be trailing Republican Martha McSally (pictured). Of the remaining 19 bets, I correctly called 15, including the bet on the Democrats taking back the House of Representatives and the Senate races in Delaware, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Mississippi, Massachusetts, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio and Texas.

I also correctly predicted that Andrew Cuomo would be re-elected as governor of New York, though that was hardly unexpected. Republican Jon Carter narrowly triumphed over Mary Hegar in the 31st District of Texas. Finally, I was also correct to tip Beto O'Rouke getting between 40% and 50% of the vote in Texas.

I also made some notable missteps. Far from being reduced to 50 seats or less, the Republicans will in fact increase the number of Senate seats they hold. Andrew Gillum and Richard Cordray ended up coming short in their contests to become governors of Florida and Ohio respectively. Overall, my 19 combined bets made a profit of 7.5%, though if McSally ends up winning in Arizona it will fall to only 2.5%. If you count the bets individually, I ended up making 2.2%.

Recommended

Trading: catch this coach company
Trading

Trading: catch this coach company

Bus and coach operator National Express has expanded into promising markets abroad – and it looks cheap
28 Jan 2020
DoorDash won't deliver for investors. Here's how to short it
Trading

DoorDash won't deliver for investors. Here's how to short it

American food-delivery app DoorDash can’t even make money in a pandemic. Matthew Partridge explains the best way to short it.
20 Jan 2021
How my trading tips fared in 2020
Spread betting

How my trading tips fared in 2020

Winning ideas included going long media group ITV and shorting electric-lorry maker Nikola
30 Dec 2020
Ocado won’t deliver for investors: here's how to play it
Spread betting

Ocado won’t deliver for investors: here's how to play it

Sales are surging at online grocer Ocado, but consistent profitability has proved elusive. The share price is heading for a fall, says Matthew Partrid…
15 Dec 2020

Most Popular

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021
House prices

Why we won’t see a house-price crash in 2021

Lockdown sent house prices berserk as cooped up home-workers fled for bigger properties in the country. And while they won’t rise quite as much this y…
18 Jan 2021
The FTSE 100 is set for a makeover with an influx of new tech stocks
UK stockmarkets

The FTSE 100 is set for a makeover with an influx of new tech stocks

The FTSE 100 – the dullest index in the world – is about to reinvent itself as a host of new firms list on the market. The change is long overdue, say…
24 Jan 2021
Think Tesla is a bubble? This might be the best way to bet on it bursting
Oil

Think Tesla is a bubble? This might be the best way to bet on it bursting

The huge rise in Tesla’s share price means that, by market value, it’s now the sixth-largest company in the US and and the world’s biggest car-maker. …
25 Jan 2021