There are only two months to go before Brazil’s elections, and another shock right-wing victory might be on the way in Latin America’s largest economy.
Jair Bolsonaro: a fringe candidate enters the mainstream
(Image credit: Credit: ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo)
There are only two months to go before Brazil's elections, and another shock right-wing victory might be on the way in Latin America's largest economy. Polls show widespread dissatisfaction among Brazil's 147 million voters, "who have been bombarded with tales of corruption and shaken by rising crime", says Andres Schipani in the Financial Times. That makes the election highly unpredictable.
"At least five candidates from across the spectrum have a chance of victory" yet "voters have few options for real change". What the country needs is a bold president who will implement fiscal reforms to rein in its runaway budget deficit. What it will get could be far worse.
The front-runner in opinion polls is Luiz Incio Lula da Silva, the former left-wing president. He is in jail, having been convicted of corruption, and so won't be able to run in the election: Fernando Haddad, the former mayor of So Paulo, will effectively be his proxy.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
But second place is occupied by Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right candidate. He has emulated Donald Trump with his outrageous and sexist off-the-cuff remarks and a focus on social media, and Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines with an authoritarian, tough-on-crime message. Bolsonaro would be a fringe figure if not for the traumas Brazil has endured in recent years, says The Economist. In addition to rising murder rates, Brazil suffered its worst-ever recession in 2014-2016 and is only "recovering haltingly".
Yet he "would make a disastrous president". He does not have sufficient respect for many of the country's citizens to govern fairly and there is "little evidence he understands Brazil's economic problems". But while 60% of Brazilians say they will never vote for him, "there is no room for complacency". Other countries with this "mix of crime, elite failure and economic agony" have elected radical presidents. It could happen again.
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Marina Gerner is an award-winning journalist and columnist who has written for the Financial Times, the Times Literary Supplement, the Economist, The Guardian and Standpoint magazine in the UK; the New York Observer in the US; and die Bild and Frankfurter Rundschau in Germany.
Marina is also an adjunct professor at the NYU Stern School of Business at their London campus, and has a PhD from the London School of Economics.
Her first book, The Vagina Business, deals with the potential of “femtech” to transform women’s lives, and will be published by Icon Books in September 2024.
Government launches full review of parental leave and pay – what could it mean for you?
Nationwide: House prices see biggest monthly fall in over two years
