Betting on politics: Ohio's senate election

With Ohio's Senate seat up for grabs in November, it promises to be one of the most closely watched mid-term contents, says Matthew Partridge.

Dr Matthew Partridge
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published
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908-Brown-634

Sherrod Brown: firm favourite
(Image credit: 2018 Getty Images)

This week, a special election in a formerly safe Republican congressional district in Ohio ended up with the Republican clinging on by a only small amount (though the Democrats are refusing to concede). So it's a good time to look at November's Senate election in Ohio, one of the most closely watched mid-term contests. Ohio has always been a closely contested state, voting for the winning presidential candidate, though not necessarily the winner of the popular vote, in every national election for over half a century.

Trump carried Ohio by nearly ten points, and his approval rating is noticeably higher in the Buckeye state than in the US as a whole (though still slightly negative). So, naturally many people have speculated that this is one of the GOP's best opportunities for a pickup. However, the betting markets seem to disagree, with Democrat Sherrod Brown firm favourite to retain his seat. Betfair offers 1.36 (73.5%) on the Democrats, while you can get 4/11 (73.3%) with Paddy Power.

In this case, I think the betting markets are even underestimating Brown's chances. He has a relatively strong net approval rating and is a seasoned campaigner, having fought off a strong Republican challenge six years ago. He has led every poll that has been conducted so far, by margins ranging from 4 to 13 points. Some of the polls have him winning more than half of the vote, a sign of strength. So I suggest that you take Paddy Power's odds on him being re-elected.

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Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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