Betting on politics: Ohio's senate election

With Ohio's Senate seat up for grabs in November, it promises to be one of the most closely watched mid-term contents, says Matthew Partridge.

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Sherrod Brown: firm favourite
(Image credit: 2018 Getty Images)

This week, a special election in a formerly safe Republican congressional district in Ohio ended up with the Republican clinging on by a only small amount (though the Democrats are refusing to concede). So it's a good time to look at November's Senate election in Ohio, one of the most closely watched mid-term contests. Ohio has always been a closely contested state, voting for the winning presidential candidate, though not necessarily the winner of the popular vote, in every national election for over half a century.

In this case, I think the betting markets are even underestimating Brown's chances. He has a relatively strong net approval rating and is a seasoned campaigner, having fought off a strong Republican challenge six years ago. He has led every poll that has been conducted so far, by margins ranging from 4 to 13 points. Some of the polls have him winning more than half of the vote, a sign of strength. So I suggest that you take Paddy Power's odds on him being re-elected.

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Dr Matthew Partridge
MoneyWeek Shares editor