Betting on politics: America's mid-term vote

Matthew Partridge weighs the odds as the Democrats and Republicans battle it out for control of the House of Representatives.

Dr Matthew Partridge
By
published
in Features

899-logos-634

595131772
(Image credit: Nerthuz)

The major upcoming political event is the mid-term vote in the US. The entirety of the House of Representatives, 35 seats in the US Senate and the Governorship of 39 US states and territories will be up for re-election. The big question is whether the Republicans can retain their control of the House (which they have held since 2010) and Senate (theirs since 2012).

There are currently 51 Republicans in the Senate, 47 Democrats and two independents. With the independents supporting the Democrats, the Democrats need two further seats to take control. Given that only three out of the ten seats considered to be in play are Republican, I think the Democrats will make only one or two net gains. This makes Betfair's 5.8 (17.2%) on neither party getting more than 50 seats (not counting independents) good value, though don't put any more money on it if you already took my advice on this in Issue 872 last November.

The polls show the Democrats with a solid lead of 5%-7% in the generic Congressional ballot. While boundaries and incumbency work in the Republicans' favour, I still think that Democrats will retake the House. Even though the Betfair odds on a Democratic victory have shrunk from the 3.1 (32%) I tipped in Issue 848 last June to 1.94 (51.5%), I still think it's worth supporting the Donkeys over the Elephants. However, as always, never double down on any bets you have made.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up
Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

Latest