Betting on politics: America's mid-term vote

Matthew Partridge weighs the odds as the Democrats and Republicans battle it out for control of the House of Representatives.

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(Image credit: Nerthuz)

The major upcoming political event is the mid-term vote in the US. The entirety of the House of Representatives, 35 seats in the US Senate and the Governorship of 39 US states and territories will be up for re-election. The big question is whether the Republicans can retain their control of the House (which they have held since 2010) and Senate (theirs since 2012).

The polls show the Democrats with a solid lead of 5%-7% in the generic Congressional ballot. While boundaries and incumbency work in the Republicans' favour, I still think that Democrats will retake the House. Even though the Betfair odds on a Democratic victory have shrunk from the 3.1 (32%) I tipped in Issue 848 last June to 1.94 (51.5%), I still think it's worth supporting the Donkeys over the Elephants. However, as always, never double down on any bets you have made.

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Dr Matthew Partridge
MoneyWeek Shares editor