Betting on politics: the hottest markets

Jacob Rees-Mogg is the bookies' favourite to succeed Theresa May as prime minister, says Matthew Partridge.

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Jacob Rees-Mogg: the bookies' favourite
(Image credit: 2018 Getty Images)

By the time you read this magazine, the UK's local elections will be over, which makes it a good time to look at the hottest markets on the two main betting exchanges: Betfairand Smarkets. Unsurprisingly, the fate of the US president seems to be uppermost in everyone's mind. While bettors think Trump will survive his first term, it hasn't stopped them wagering £1.13m on which year he will leave the White House, or from betting £1.02m on whether he will leave before the end of his first term or not.

Bettors on Betfair have punted £118,398 on whether we will be leaving the EU by March 2019 on average, they expect a 60% chance of Brexit, while £92,438 has been bet on Betfair as to who will get most seats at the next general election, with the Conservatives currently the narrow favourites (the local election results may affect that). Just over £73,000 has been traded on control of the US House of Representatives after November's mid-term elections; punters expect the Democrats to win. Finally, tenth place in terms of betting market activity goes to guessing the year of the next general election, with £46,080 bet on Betfair.

MoneyWeek

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Dr Matthew Partridge
MoneyWeek Shares editor