Betting on politics: The next chancellor

published 23 March 2018

888-Rudd-634 — Amber Rudd: the next chancellor

We've had a streak of bad luck recently, so it's nice to be able to celebrate our first major victory of 2018. At last weekend's by-election in Batman, Australia, Labor comfortably beat the Greens, 54% to 46%. So our tip that you take Paddy Power's 3/1 bet on Labor's Ged Kearney paid off nicely.

In Britain, one punt worth considering now is the identity of the next chancellor; both Paddy Power and Ladbrokes have markets on it. Interestingly, Ladbrokes lists 15 potential candidates, including two Labour politicians (McDonnell and Rebecca Long-Bailey), while Paddy Power only has six, all Conservatives. The prices on offer also differ significantly. Ladbrokes' frontrunners are Gove, priced at 3/1 (25%); Hunt, 4/1 (20%); Rudd, 6/1 (14.3%); and Labour's John McDonnell, 6/1 (14.3%). Boris Johnson's odds are 25 to 1 (3.8%). By contrast, Paddy Power's list runs as follows: Hunt, 4/1 (20%); Gove, 5/1 (16.7%); Javid 6/1 (14.3%); McDonnell, 8/1 (11.1%); Grayling, 8/1 (11.1%), and Rudd 9/1 (10%).

We can discount the Labour names because there will almost certainly be a reshuffle removing Hammond before the next election. I'd also rule out Hunt because he is a poor performer expected to depart the cabinet soon. Take Paddy Power's price on Gove and Rudd, and go with Ladbrokes on Javid (10/1), Rees-Mogg (10/1) and Boris Johnson (25/1). This gives you combined odds of 48.6%. Out of a hypothetical betting unit of £10, I'd put £3.42 on Gove, £2.05 on Rudd, £1.87 each on Javid and Rees-Mogg and £0.79 on Johnson.

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Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri