Features

Betting on politics: The next chancellor

We’ve had a streak of bad luck recently, so it’s nice to be able to celebrate our first major victory of 2018, says Matthew Partridge.

888-Rudd-634
Amber Rudd: the next chancellor

We've had a streak of bad luck recently, so it's nice to be able to celebrate our first major victory of 2018. At last weekend's by-election in Batman, Australia, Labor comfortably beat the Greens, 54% to 46%. So our tip that you take Paddy Power's 3/1 bet on Labor's Ged Kearney paid off nicely.

In Britain, one punt worth considering now is the identity of the next chancellor; both Paddy Power and Ladbrokes have markets on it. Interestingly, Ladbrokes lists 15 potential candidates, including two Labour politicians (McDonnell and Rebecca Long-Bailey), while Paddy Power only has six, all Conservatives. The prices on offer also differ significantly. Ladbrokes' frontrunners are Gove, priced at 3/1 (25%); Hunt, 4/1 (20%); Rudd, 6/1 (14.3%); and Labour's John McDonnell, 6/1 (14.3%). Boris Johnson's odds are 25 to 1 (3.8%). By contrast, Paddy Power's list runs as follows: Hunt, 4/1 (20%); Gove, 5/1 (16.7%); Javid 6/1 (14.3%); McDonnell, 8/1 (11.1%); Grayling, 8/1 (11.1%), and Rudd 9/1 (10%).

We can discount the Labour names because there will almost certainly be a reshuffle removing Hammond before the next election. I'd also rule out Hunt because he is a poor performer expected to depart the cabinet soon. Take Paddy Power's price on Gove and Rudd, and go with Ladbrokes on Javid (10/1), Rees-Mogg (10/1) and Boris Johnson (25/1). This gives you combined odds of 48.6%. Out of a hypothetical betting unit of £10, I'd put £3.42 on Gove, £2.05 on Rudd, £1.87 each on Javid and Rees-Mogg and £0.79 on Johnson.

Recommended

How the fear of death affects our investment processes
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
How long can the good times roll?
Economy

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019
Why negative interest rates are a lousy idea
UK Economy

Why negative interest rates are a lousy idea

The Bank of England’s governor says negative interest rates can encourage investment rather than having cash stashed in the bank. But is that really t…
22 Oct 2020

Most Popular

How will we repay our vast debt pile? Do we even need to?
Sponsored

How will we repay our vast debt pile? Do we even need to?

In his recent articles looking at different aspects of the fixed-income investing world, David Stevenson looked at inflation. Today he looks at a clos…
19 Oct 2020
Negative interest rates and the end of free bank accounts
Bank accounts

Negative interest rates and the end of free bank accounts

Negative interest rates are likely to mean the introduction of fees for current accounts and other banking products. But that might make the UK bankin…
19 Oct 2020
The Bank of England should create a "Bitpound" digital currency and take the world by storm
Bitcoin

The Bank of England should create a "Bitpound" digital currency and take the world by storm

The Bank of England could win the race to create a respectable digital currency if it moves quickly, says Matthew Lynn.
18 Oct 2020