Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
You are now subscribed
Your newsletter sign-up was successful
Want to add more newsletters?
An account already exists for this email address, please log in.
Betting on politics: The next chancellor
We’ve had a streak of bad luck recently, so it’s nice to be able to celebrate our first major victory of 2018, says Matthew Partridge.
We've had a streak of bad luck recently, so it's nice to be able to celebrate our first major victory of 2018. At last weekend's by-election in Batman, Australia, Labor comfortably beat the Greens, 54% to 46%. So our tip that you take Paddy Power's 3/1 bet on Labor's Ged Kearney paid off nicely.
In Britain, one punt worth considering now is the identity of the next chancellor; both Paddy Power and Ladbrokes have markets on it. Interestingly, Ladbrokes lists 15 potential candidates, including two Labour politicians (McDonnell and Rebecca Long-Bailey), while Paddy Power only has six, all Conservatives. The prices on offer also differ significantly. Ladbrokes' frontrunners are Gove, priced at 3/1 (25%); Hunt, 4/1 (20%); Rudd, 6/1 (14.3%); and Labour's John McDonnell, 6/1 (14.3%). Boris Johnson's odds are 25 to 1 (3.8%). By contrast, Paddy Power's list runs as follows: Hunt, 4/1 (20%); Gove, 5/1 (16.7%); Javid 6/1 (14.3%); McDonnell, 8/1 (11.1%); Grayling, 8/1 (11.1%), and Rudd 9/1 (10%).
We can discount the Labour names because there will almost certainly be a reshuffle removing Hammond before the next election. I'd also rule out Hunt because he is a poor performer expected to depart the cabinet soon. Take Paddy Power's price on Gove and Rudd, and go with Ladbrokes on Javid (10/1), Rees-Mogg (10/1) and Boris Johnson (25/1). This gives you combined odds of 48.6%. Out of a hypothetical betting unit of £10, I'd put £3.42 on Gove, £2.05 on Rudd, £1.87 each on Javid and Rees-Mogg and £0.79 on Johnson.
Start your trial of MoneyWeek today
Get unparalleled financial insight, analysis and expert opinion you can profit from.
Sign up for MoneyWeek’s free twice-daily newsletter.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
