Betting on politics: The next chancellor
We’ve had a streak of bad luck recently, so it’s nice to be able to celebrate our first major victory of 2018, says Matthew Partridge.
We've had a streak of bad luck recently, so it's nice to be able to celebrate our first major victory of 2018. At last weekend's by-election in Batman, Australia, Labor comfortably beat the Greens, 54% to 46%. So our tip that you take Paddy Power's 3/1 bet on Labor's Ged Kearney paid off nicely.
In Britain, one punt worth considering now is the identity of the next chancellor; both Paddy Power and Ladbrokes have markets on it. Interestingly, Ladbrokes lists 15 potential candidates, including two Labour politicians (McDonnell and Rebecca Long-Bailey), while Paddy Power only has six, all Conservatives. The prices on offer also differ significantly. Ladbrokes' frontrunners are Gove, priced at 3/1 (25%); Hunt, 4/1 (20%); Rudd, 6/1 (14.3%); and Labour's John McDonnell, 6/1 (14.3%). Boris Johnson's odds are 25 to 1 (3.8%). By contrast, Paddy Power's list runs as follows: Hunt, 4/1 (20%); Gove, 5/1 (16.7%); Javid 6/1 (14.3%); McDonnell, 8/1 (11.1%); Grayling, 8/1 (11.1%), and Rudd 9/1 (10%).
We can discount the Labour names because there will almost certainly be a reshuffle removing Hammond before the next election. I'd also rule out Hunt because he is a poor performer expected to depart the cabinet soon. Take Paddy Power's price on Gove and Rudd, and go with Ladbrokes on Javid (10/1), Rees-Mogg (10/1) and Boris Johnson (25/1). This gives you combined odds of 48.6%. Out of a hypothetical betting unit of £10, I'd put £3.42 on Gove, £2.05 on Rudd, £1.87 each on Javid and Rees-Mogg and £0.79 on Johnson.