What’s happening with UK house prices? Latest property market moves and forecasts
With mortgage rates creeping back up and ongoing market volatility, can we expect house prices to slide?
Sam Walker
Hopes for house price growth were high at the start of 2026 amid falling inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts, but there are fears that the war in Iran may dent confidence.
Growth in the housing market was stunted last year due to falling stamp duty thresholds in March 2025 and buyers and sellers remaining tentative in the run up to the 2025 Autumn Budget, as well as higher mortgage rates.
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What is the current average house price in the UK?
There are five main house price indices measuring how much UK house prices have gone up or down over the past month and year: HM Land Registry/Office for National Statistics (ONS), Halifax, Nationwide, Zoopla and Rightmove.
HM Land Registry UK House Price Index
The most authoritative is HM Land Registry as its data includes cash purchases as well as homes financed through a mortgage. Its data is published on a six-week time lag though, meaning it’s more retrospective than other house price indices.
According to the latest available Land Registry data, released in March 2026, annual house price growth slowed between December 2025 and January 2026 from 1.9% to 1.3%, while prices are down on a monthly basis by 0.3%.
This puts the average UK house price at £268,421 as of January 2026.
Nationwide House Price Index
The most recent Nationwide data reveals house prices rose by 0.9% in the month to March, up from £273,176.
Nationwide puts the average UK house price at £277,186.
Halifax House Price Index
The latest Halifax House Price Index (HPI) shows the average UK house price fell by 0.5% between February and March to £299,677.
The lender put the drop down to the conflict in the Middle East seeing mortgage rates rise and raising concerns interest rates may not be cut in 2026.
Rightmove House Price Index
Unlike Nationwide and Halifax’s HPIs, which are based on the building society and bank’s valuations at the mortgage-approval stage, Rightmove’s HPI is based on asking prices.
According to the latest data from Rightmove, the average UK property asking price is £371,042 (March 2026), up from £368,019 in February.
Zoopla House Price Index
The Zoopla house price index uses sold prices, mortgage valuations, and data for agreed sales to calculate house prices for any given month.
The property portal’s latest index said the average UK house price is £270,500 as of February 2026, up from £269,900 in January 2026.
It also said demand from buyers in March was down by 13% year-on-year due to rising mortgage rates and uncertainty over where the Middle East conflict is headed.
Which UK regions are seeing the strongest house price growth?
Despite the challenges facing the market, some regions are experiencing major surges in house prices. Northern Ireland is one.
The country is experiencing major growth, according to the main house price indices.
Halifax said property values rose by an average of 8.7% in the year to March (£224,809). Meanwhile, Nationwide’s latest data suggests house prices there rose by 9.5% in the year to March (£225,269).
The northern regions of England and Scotland have also experienced positive house price growth over the last 12 months.
Rightmove’s latest data shows asking prices rose the most on an annual basis in North West England. They went up by 2.6% to £270,656 in the year to March.
Meanwhile, Nationwide said annual house price growth in Scotland was 3% in the year to March (£191,747).
Is confidence in the market turning a corner?
As well as the five main HPIs released on a regular basis, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) also publishes a monthly Residential Market Survey.
The report generates net balance scores between -100 and +100 in response to a series of questions put to its members (estate agents and surveyors) about how the housing market has changed.
Recent RICS reports had suggested the housing market is showing signs of “tentative recovery,” but now members are warning that confidence is stalling due to tensions in the Gulf.
Surveyors have turned more negative on buyer demand and sales expectations.
House prices were broadly flat at the national level in February, with the headline price net balance registering -12%.
There are big regional differences though.
Surveyors in London (-40%), the South East (-24%) and East Anglia (-26%) saw the most downward pressure on price, while those in Northern Ireland, Scotland and the North West of England are still reporting positive price trends.
Looking ahead, surveyors have become more cautious on prices in the short term, with the near-term price expectations balance falling to -18% from -6% in January. Over a 12-month horizon, sentiment remains positive, with a net balance of +33% expecting prices to edge.
Will house prices rise in 2026 and beyond?
At the start of the year, major lenders and estate agents were forecasting house prices to rise by up to 3% in 2026.
Estate agency Hamptons expected property values to grow by 2.5% by Q4, while Halifax forecasted they would edge up by between 1% and 3%.
Savills predicted a 2% rise while in the four years between 2027 and 2030, it said it expected to see prices grow by 4%, 5%, 5.5% and 4%, respectively, in part due to wages rising by a forecasted 22% between 2025 and 2029 and improved economic growth.
However, the ripple effects of tensions in the Middle East have prompted some economists and analysts to review their forecasts for the year.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics adjusted their predictions for house price growth for 2026 from 3% to 1%.
Meanwhile, housing analysts polled by Reuters news agency last month forecasted property price growth of 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.8% in December.
How have mortgage interest rate changes impacted buyer affordability in the UK?
Savills predicts the number of people buying homes between 2025 and 2030 will be boosted by falling mortgage rates while more relaxed affordability tests from lenders could boost transaction volumes.
In January 2026, Zoopla predicted house price growth will be slow in 2026 at 1.5%, with interest rate cuts slowly filtering through to make owning a home cheaper.
Meanwhile, Nationwide’s House Price Review, published in December 2025, suggests property prices will rise between 2% and 4% in 2026 due to falling mortgage rates and as wage growth outpaces property price growth.
The “mansion tax” on homes valued at more than £2 million, introduced in the 2025 Autumn Budget and coming into effect in 2028, is “unlikely to have a significant impact on the market”, the building society added, as it will only apply to 1% of homes.
As with the other forecasts, these predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt as they were made prior to the outbreak of tensions in the Middle East.
It remains to be seen whether mortgage rates will go up or down over the coming months, but as of 8 April, a conditional ceasefire was in place between the US and Iran. Should tensions continue to ease, it could lead to mortgage rates falling later on in 2026.
