Before we look at the first tip of the year, let's review this column's 2017 performance. We correctly predicted that Marine Le Pen wouldn't be elected French president while Emmanuel Macron would. We called all nine of our individual seat predictions correctly in this year's general election.
Our top punt was the 18/1 tip on Elaine Duke to be the next person to leave Trump's cabinet (which Paddy Power has now settled in our favour). We also had some success betting on Australian politics, and rightly forecast that the Citizens would get the most votes in Catalonia's election in December.
On the other hand, we were far too pessimistic about Labour's chances in the election, and got the overall outcome wrong (though at least we weren't alone). As a result, neither Diane Abbott nor Jeremy Corbyn seem to be bowing out soon quite the reverse, in fact.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Our foray into the world of Ukip wasn't very successful, with neither of the two candidates that we tipped winning the leadership. Our decision to tip Boris Johnson (among others) as both next prime minister and next Tory leader appears unwise for now, at least; 2018 may see a revival in his fortunes.
Overall, this column has achieved a return of 56% on the 52 combined bets made since May 2016. Even if you had ignored our recommendations about how you should weight your bets, and just followed each of the 84 tips separately, you would still have got an average profit of 22.6%. This is above the 15%-20% goal this column sets itself.
The Czech presidential election is due this weekend, with a possible run-off at the end of the month. Polls suggest that the incumbent, Milos Zeman of the Party of Civic Rights, has a large first-round lead over Jiri Drahos, but they also indicate that Drahos will win the run-off. Given Drahos' strong opposition to joining the euro, I'd suggest that you take Paddy Power's 10/11 (52.3%) odds on him. I have put £1 on Drahos myself.
-
Private school fees soar and VAT threat looms – what does it mean for you?Rising private school fees could see more than one in five parents pull their children out of their current school. Before you remortgage, move house or look to grandparents for help, here’s what you need to know.
-
Best and worst UK banks for online banking revealedWhen it comes to keeping your money safe, not all banks are equal. We reveal the best and worst banks for online banking when it comes to protecting your money from scams
