How to avoid lethal stocks

Investors borrowing a company's shares to sell is often a bad sign, says John Stepek.

Support-services group Carillion saw its share price collapse last week as the company issued a huge profit warning. Anyone who bought the stock on Friday 7 July and held it is sitting on a paper loss of around 70%. That's very hard to recoup. The share price would need to rise by 230% just to get back to even. Very few stocks recover from that sort of collapse, and certainly not on a timescale that anyone nursing that sort of loss would feel happy about. So how can you avoid this situation in the first place? Here are three red flags that could have alerted investors to Carillion's woes.

Heavy "short" interest: one major red flag was that Carillion was the most shorted stock in the FTSE, and had been for a while (we publish this data on the shares pages once a month in MoneyWeek). Short-sellers make money when share prices fall. However, shorting is highly risky. A share price can only fall to zero, but there is no ceiling on how high it can rise so theoretically, a short-seller's potential losses are unlimited. Short-sellers also need to get their timing right a determined short-seller can stick to their guns for months or even a few years, but it's not a "buy and hold" strategy. So shorting is not done lightly.

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John Stepek

John Stepek is a senior reporter at Bloomberg News and a former editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He graduated from Strathclyde University with a degree in psychology in 1996 and has always been fascinated by the gap between the way the market works in theory and the way it works in practice, and by how our deep-rooted instincts work against our best interests as investors.

He started out in journalism by writing articles about the specific business challenges facing family firms. In 2003, he took a job on the finance desk of Teletext, where he spent two years covering the markets and breaking financial news.

His work has been published in Families in Business, Shares magazine, Spear's Magazine, The Sunday Times, and The Spectator among others. He has also appeared as an expert commentator on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, BBC Radio Scotland, Newsnight, Daily Politics and Bloomberg. His first book, on contrarian investing, The Sceptical Investor, was released in March 2019. You can follow John on Twitter at @john_stepek.