Betting on politics: a new betting exchange
Matthew Partridge looks at Smarkets, an up-and-coming betting exchange, and explains why it's one to watch.
By the time you read this article, the results of the Stoke and Copeland by-elections will be done and dusted, so there's no point in discussing them further (though I would be surprised if either Ukip or the Lib Dems win Stoke). Instead I'm going to look at Smarkets, an up-and-coming betting exchange. While there are many bookmakers, the demise of Intrade nearly four years ago means that Betfair hasn't faced any real competition for a long time. However, this is set to change.
Smarkets (set up in 2010) has been aggressively expanding its offerings over the past nine months. It now runs 12 politics-themed markets. This is still some way behind Betfair (on more than 30), but it includes options not offered elsewhere, such as two markets on Trump's first 100 days. Smarkets' press officer Pascal Lemesre promises it will increase this further, and emphasises that its customer service team actively welcomes suggestions from punters. He also points out that Smarkets charges a lower commission 2% on net winnings, compared with Betfair's 5%. Smarkets also offers various customisation options, including the ability to view odds as percentages.
Liquidity is the backbone of any exchange and this is one area where Smarkets currently falls short. More than £400,000 was traded on Betfair on the outcome of the Stoke by-election alone Smarkets has seen less than £10,034 staked on that contest. Because of this reduced volume, the gap between the bet/lay prices is generally wider than on Betfair, making it more expensive to trade. However, Smarkets is starting to catch up: £900,000 has been traded on the outcome of the French presidential election. It's always nice to have options, and if Smarkets keeps increasing the number of political markets on offer, especially on topics that don't replicate Betfair, then it could do well. It's definitely one to watch.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.

-
Steve Webb: The triple lock is there to do a job. I’m not embarrassed or ashamed of itThe triple lock means 13 million pensioners will now get an above-inflation state pension boost in April. While the rising cost of the policy has stirred controversy, Steve Webb, who served as pensions minister when it was introduced, argues the triple lock is vital and should stay. Webb speaks to Kalpana Fitzpatrick on the new episode of MoneyWeek Talks – out now.
-
How retirement pots risk running out 11 years early if inflation remains highPension savers could find their retirement income may not last as long as they anticipated over fears that inflation may not slow down