Betting on politics: a big year for Europe

17-2-2-Le-Pen-1200 — Marine Le Pen: populist but not popular enough

The big election this year will be the one in France. Unsettled by allegations of financial impropriety, punters are fleeing from the former prime minister Franois Fillon. As a result, he's lost frontrunner status and his odds have drifted out to 4.1 (22.7%) on Betfair. The centrist Emmanuel Macron has overtaken him, with Betfair now according him a 45% chance of succeeding Hollande as the next president of France. While Macron's price looks tempting, there have been so many twists and turns that he could yet stumble.

What's almost certain is that the far-right MarineLe Pen won't become the next French president.Polls suggest that Macron would get 65% of the vote in a head-to-head against her, while even a wounded Fillon would still beat her in a landslide. If you haven't yet taken my advice to lay her at 5 (equivalent to betting against her at 1.25) then you should do so. If you have, then sit tight.

Another interesting contest is the upcoming Dutch general election in March. The far-right Party For Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, is the clear favourite to win the most seats. However, Holland has a strict proportional representation system, and the other major parties have categorically said that they won't work with him.

MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

As a result, Wilders needs a majority, or near-majority, of votes to be in with a shout of forming a viable government.Yet the latest polls only put his party between 26% and 33% of the vote, still some way behind the current government. Even the PVV's record poll ratings in December 2016 only had them at 36%.Although short-odds bets can be risky when theygo wrong, we'd suggest taking Ladbrokes' 2/7 (77.8%) on Wilders not becoming prime minister in 2017.Odds of 2/7 mean that you would get £2 profit on a £7 stake for a total of £9.