You will have been wondering what Brexit means. Now you know. It really does mean Brexit leaving the European Union properly. That means leaving the single market, leaving the customs union (probably), controlling immigration from the EU on our own terms, ending our huge payments into the EU budget and, crucially, preferring to take our chances with the world over taking a bad deal from the EU in 2019. We want a bespoke deal. But if we can't have a good one we won't have one at all.
This effectively threatens what most people would think of as a hard Brexit (or a good part of what economists Liam Halligan and Gerard Lyons call a "clean Brexit" in their new paper on the matter for the Policy Exchange). We suspect this is the right form of Brexit. It leaves us with the hope of a good free-trade deal with the EU from 2019 we have plenty of leverage given our value as a regional partner in defence and security, our trade deficit with Europe, our ability simply to walk away at the end of 2019 if needs be and, of course, our money (£9bn a year to the EU).
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
European stocks are back in business – can it last?European stocks enjoy a strong start to the year, but the rally is proving uneven as France struggles to keep up
-
8 of the best properties for sale with communal gardensThe best properties for sale with access to communal gardens – from an apartment in a listed building opposite London’s Hyde Park, to a wing of a mansion with access to 180 acres of parkland in Henley-upon-Thames
-
How capitalism has been undermined by poor governanceEditor's letter Capitalism’s “ruthless efficiency” has been undermined by poor governance, a lack of competition and central banks’ over-enthusiastic money printing, says Andrew Van Sickle.
-
The biggest change in the last 17 years – the death of the “Greenspan put”Editor's letter Since I joined MoneyWeek 17 years ago, says John Stepek, we’ve seen a global financial crisis, a eurozone sovereign debt crisis , several Chinese growth scares, a global pandemic, and a land war in Europe. But the biggest change is the death of the “Greenspan put”.
-
Things won't just return to normal – that's not how inflation worksEditor's letter You might think that, if inflation is indeed “transitory”, we just need to wait and everything will return to “normal”. But this is a grave misunderstanding of how inflation works, says John Stepek.
-
Car hire and the strangeness of the post-pandemic economyEditor's letter A global shortage of hire cars and unusually high hotel occupancy rates sum up the post-pandemic global economy in a nutshell, says Merryn Somerset Webb, with enhanced demand meeting restricted supply.
-
Everything is getting more expensive – including moneyEditor's letter Investors are about to start feeling rather more pain, says Merryn Somerset Webb – from the rising price of money.
-
We may be heading for recession – and it will be no ordinary recessionEditor's letter Just as the downturn in 2020 was not a typical recession. the next downturn could be very different too, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
What companies should be prioritising this decadeEditor's letter In a world beset by uncertainty, companies should be prioritising slack over efficiency, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Inflation could soon start to hurtEditor's letter Inflation is not going away. And with people's wages not keeping up, things are going to start to hurt, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
