You will have been wondering what Brexit means. Now you know. It really does mean Brexit leaving the European Union properly. That means leaving the single market, leaving the customs union (probably), controlling immigration from the EU on our own terms, ending our huge payments into the EU budget and, crucially, preferring to take our chances with the world over taking a bad deal from the EU in 2019. We want a bespoke deal. But if we can't have a good one we won't have one at all.
This effectively threatens what most people would think of as a hard Brexit (or a good part of what economists Liam Halligan and Gerard Lyons call a "clean Brexit" in their new paper on the matter for the Policy Exchange). We suspect this is the right form of Brexit. It leaves us with the hope of a good free-trade deal with the EU from 2019 we have plenty of leverage given our value as a regional partner in defence and security, our trade deficit with Europe, our ability simply to walk away at the end of 2019 if needs be and, of course, our money (£9bn a year to the EU).
It also gives us two years to prepare for life outside the single market (I don't suppose we need that much time but work, as we all know, expands to fit the time available); it means we won't get too bogged down in pointless negotiations; and it is probably the only real way to regain sovereignty in a way that meets the expectations of Leave voters. So things are gradually getting clearer in the UK, something that has cheered the pound up no end it rose more as May spoke than it has in a single day since 2008.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
There's starting to be a little more clarity in the US as well. In our cover story, Rupert Foster looks at the policies that are likely to be enacted first and what they might mean for your investments. The good news, says Rupert, is that Trump is definitely going to be a "pro-business, pro-growth and pro-stockmarket president". What do you buy to take advantage of that trend?We also look atwhat you might do with any profits you manage to make perhaps take a deep breath and start thinking about how you are going to pay for your very old age.
We often write about pensions here. What we haven't often done is pointed out that you don't just need to think about financing the fun bit of retirement (when you are still mobile and healthy), you also need to think about the not so fun bit (when you need care) and that the latter can cost a lot more than the former. Hard Brexit, soft Brexit, or clean Brexit, it is hard to see getting good long-term care becoming cheaper or easier to access in the next few decades. It's boring and depressing to think about preparing for that. But, as with most things, it's best to make a plan and then just get on with it, Theresa May-style.
-
FTSE 100 hits record highs – why is it rising and will we see more gains?Advice UK equities have been described as unloved for a long time but as the FTSE 100 hits new highs, we explain if now is the time to buy British.
-
How to invest in copperIt may be time to invest in copper as the red metal appears poised for a big jump. Dominic Frisby looks at what should investors should buy
-
Beat the cost of living crisis – go on holidayEditor's letter As inflation rages, energy bills soar and the pound tanks, what’s a good way to save money this winter? Go on holiday, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
How capitalism has been undermined by poor governanceEditor's letter Capitalism’s “ruthless efficiency” has been undermined by poor governance, a lack of competition and central banks’ over-enthusiastic money printing, says Andrew Van Sickle.
-
Don't be scared by economic forecastingEditor's letter The Bank of England warned last week the UK will tip into recession this year. But predictions about stockmarkets, earnings or macroeconomic trends can be safely ignored, says Andrew Van Sickle.
-
The biggest change in the last 17 years – the death of the “Greenspan put”Editor's letter Since I joined MoneyWeek 17 years ago, says John Stepek, we’ve seen a global financial crisis, a eurozone sovereign debt crisis , several Chinese growth scares, a global pandemic, and a land war in Europe. But the biggest change is the death of the “Greenspan put”.
-
The wolf returns to the eurozone’s doorEditor's letter The eurozone’s intrinsic flaws have been exposed again as investors’ fears about Italy’s ability to pay its debt sends bond yields soaring.
-
Things won't just return to normal – that's not how inflation worksEditor's letter You might think that, if inflation is indeed “transitory”, we just need to wait and everything will return to “normal”. But this is a grave misunderstanding of how inflation works, says John Stepek.
-
Car hire and the strangeness of the post-pandemic economyEditor's letter A global shortage of hire cars and unusually high hotel occupancy rates sum up the post-pandemic global economy in a nutshell, says Merryn Somerset Webb, with enhanced demand meeting restricted supply.
-
Why we need to get a grip on our governmentEditor's letter Our government is trying to do too much, enacting policies that are destructive to the private sector. It needs to drop the the feel-good nonsense and create policies that lead to long-term wealth, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
