Is history a fair guide to investing?

We're all told not to rely on past performance history when buying funds. But how true is that advice? Matthew Partridge investigates.

Most advertising material related to funds carries the obligatory disclaimer: "past performance is not a guide to future performance". It's a legal requirement but how accurate is it? The fund industry certainly doesn't seem to believe it's true.

A 2013 study by Todd Schlanger and Christopher Philips for passive investment group Vanguard showed that funds which had lagged both the market and their peers were more likely to be shut down or merged than others. Technically speaking, if past performance is no guide, there is no reason to close underachievers more often than winners.

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Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri