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Is the worst over for mining giant Glencore?
Shares in Glencore rose despite the bad news from the Anglo-Swiss commodities giant, says Alex Williams. Everybody loves the comeback kid.
A surprise $4bn impairment on its nickel operations in New Caledonia pushed Anglo-Swiss commodities giant Glencore to a monster loss of $8bn, compared to a $4bn profit a year ago.But its share price rose by as much as 3% on the news, as it made progress on paying down debt. Glencore's shares have nearly doubled in the last six months as it has ditched its dividend, sold shares and dumped assets, helping to lower net debt, which has fallen to $26bn, compared to more than $30bn a year ago.
The scale of the loss puts "an exclamation mark on a dismal 2015" for mining shares, says Alex MacDonald for Dow Jones. The world's five largest miners BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Vale, Glencore and Anglo American have reported combined losses of $32bn.
But in contrast to other mining bosses, who have warned of another tough year ahead, Glencore's chief executive, Ivan Glasenberg, sounded unusually optimistic. He said he was "very positive on China" and the company's trading book is "strong". "Have we bottomed?" Glasenberg asked. "I think so."
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No firm reporting an $8bn loss and $26bn of net debt can claim to be out of the woods, says Nils Pratley in The Guardian, but Glencore does look "less dreadful" than it did six months ago. The dividend could even be "reinstated" in 2017, says Steven Kalmin, the firm's chief financial officer.
"Everyone loves the comeback kid," says David Fickling for Bloomberg. Glasenberg has shown "steely discipline" in pulling nearly $9bn of costs and debt out of the business, with another $13bn promised. But the shares are now fully valued: at 8.6 times forecast earnings, Glencore is more expensive than either Rio Tinto or industry leader BHP Billiton.
"Glencore has been on one big round trip," says Helen Thomas in The Wall Street Journal. Shares have collapsed and then rebounded in the last year. Glasenberg's debt-cutting efforts are on track and last year's panic over its debt levels has passed. But where can the shares go from here? Without a tailwind from commodity prices, the most likely direction is "sideways".
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