Asia contains the majority of the world's population and is growing fast enough to produce an economy the size of Germany every four years. "But you wouldn't know it" from recent stockmarket performance, says Kopin Tan in Barron's. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index has fallen by more than 20% from April's peak, taking it to a three-year low. Fears over a hard landing in China, falling commodity prices and the prospect of higher interest rates in America, which would draw money away from emerging markets, have been the main culprits. "Many countries rely heavily on sales to China," notes Craig Erlam of Oanda, so their growth will be undermined if China doesn't pick up soon.
Exports to China make up around 10% of GDP, on average, for its regional neighbours, although the figure ranges from the low-single digits for India, Indonesia and the Philippines to 25% for Hong Kong. Still, the good news is that worries over a hard landing in China are receding this may prove a good entry point for long-term investors.
China's clouds are lifting
Any improvement in China should boost Asia ex-Japan's exports. Interest rates across the region are near all-time lows. Subdued inflation means any further falls in Asian currencies should not prompt rapid rate rises to squeeze out inflation in import prices. All in all, Capital Economics expects GDP growth in emerging Asia to rise to 5.6% in 2016 from 4.3% this year. In 2004-2013, annual growth averaged 7.4%.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Stocks are cheap
This doesn't seem much to pay for the region's potential. A widely cited E&Y study from 2013 estimates that two-thirds of the world's rapidly growing middle class people with enough money to buy consumer goods will live in Asia.
In Indonesia, the number of people in the middle-income bracket is set to more than double in five years. All this means "huge pent-up demand for housing, consumer durables, transport and banking services", says Aberdeen Asset Management's Hugh Young on Trustnet.com. The region has also begun "to emerge quietly from China's giant shadow". The ten nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Asean, "has developed into something resembling a single market of some 625 million consumers", says Young. Youthful populations will swell the ranks of the region's labour force for years to come.
Two investment trusts are worth a look. Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies (LSE: SST) is the top-performing trust in the sector over the past decade, says Citywire. It has gained 275% in the past ten years. A less risky play, as it is not skewed towards small caps, is the Fidelity Asian Values (LSE: FAS) trust, up by 150% over the same time period. The two funds are on discounts of 11%-12% to their net asset values (ie, their share prices are below the value of their portfolios).
-
Who is the richest person in the world?The top five richest people in the world have a combined net worth of $825 billion. Who takes the crown for the richest person in the world?
-
Top 10 stocks with highest growth over past decade - from Nvidia, Microsoft to Netflix, which companies made you the most money?
We reveal the 10 global companies with the biggest returns since 2013. One firm has posted an astonishing 9,870% return, meaning a £1,000 investment would now be worth almost £82,000.
