Greek referendum result: what happens next

The Greek referendum result means voters have rejected a deal with creditors. Matthew Partridge looks at how the situation arose, and the approaching deadlines.


The Greek referendum said 'no' - so what's next?

The Greek referendum result means voters have overwhelmingly rejected a proposed deal with creditors. Matthew Partridge examines how the situation arose, and sets out the approaching deadlines.

Sunday, 25 January

Syriza win a victory in the Greek general election. Although short of a majority, they form a coalition with the Independent Greeks the next day.

Friday, 20 February

Greece and the eurozone agree a temporary loan that will extend the bailout for four months. In return they agree to drop plans to reverse certain austerity measures, such as the sale of a port.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up

Friday, 5 June

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) agrees to postpone the date of its payment to the end of June, so that a deal can be reached.

Thursday, 25 July

The IMF, EU and European Central Bank (ECB) the so-called Troika' submit a formal offer to the Greek government. (This is the agreement that Greeks will end up voting on.)

Saturday, 27 June

With everyone expecting the Greek PM to approve a stopgap deal with the Troika, Alexis Tsipras shocks the financial world by announcing a referendum on the agreement, and revealing that he will campaign for a "no".

Sunday, 28 June

The Greek parliament approves a referendum. The troika approaches Greek PM Alexis Tsipras with a revised deal, which is rejected. The ECB refuses to extent liquidity assistance to Greek banks, forcing capital controls and shutting of stock exchange.

Tuesday, 30 June

Greece misses its IMF loan payment of €1.55bn and goes "into arrears". Although unprecedented for a developed country, this is not classed by credit agencies as a default, since it doesn't involve private debts.

Wednesday, 1 July

Greece sends a letter to its creditors offering a slightly revised version of the 28 July deal. However, creditors refuse talks before the vote. Tsipras defies expectations that he would cancel the vote, and instead makes TV appearance calling for a no' vote.

Thursday, 2 July

The IMF publishes a report suggesting that Greece may need substantial debt relief. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, also suggests it will not accept any deal that doesn't involve debt relief.

Sunday, 5 July

Greeks go to the polls to vote on whether to accept the deal. Contrary to polls showing a tight contest, the results show a landslide victory for the no' camp, which gets 61% of the vote. Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis resigns after the result is known.

Wednesday, 8 July

Greece will sell €2bn of six-month Treasury bills to raise enough money to repay the €2bn due on Friday. While it is expected to complete the sale, the interest rates will indicate lenders' confidence in Athens.

Friday, 10 July

Greece needs to pay €2bn to pay the holders of Treasury bills. Failure to do so would constitute a formal default. The Greek government suggests that this will be the deadline for extending liquidity assistance before banks are shut, or it is forced to take other measures (such as depositor haircuts').

Monday, 13 July

If no deal is agreed, Greece is expected to miss a payment of around €450m to the IMF (IMF payments are measured in their own parallel currency: "special drawing rights").

Friday, 17 July

Greece must either repay or persuade lenders to renew another €1bn of Treasury bills.

Monday, 20 July

Greece is due to repay €3.6bn to the ECB. Failure to do this will almost certainly lead to the withdrawal of emergency liquidity assistance' (ELA) funding, causing the banking system to collapse, and/or Greece leaving the eurozone.

Dr Matthew Partridge

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri