Some of what happened in 2014 was entirely expected. The eurozone did not magically cure itself. Growth in China slowed dramatically. The Scottish referendum result was a firm No. The US cut back on quantitative easing. The dollar strengthened.
Japan announced an astounding programme of money printing and asset purchasing. The Japanese stockmarket rose. London house prices finally peaked (and are falling in many parts of the capital).
The public-sector deficit in the UK failed to fall much, and our seemingly very busy politicians failed absolutely to outline a genuine alternative to debt-financed public services. Marginal political parties gained traction everywhere as a result. Gold did very little.
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But 2014 was also a year of financial surprises. No one foresaw the invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions, the collapse in the oil price and the consequent collapse in the rouble: as John Stepek notes, even the most extreme (and at the time ridiculous) forecasts for 2014 had the oil price falling to $80 a barrel.
Given our expectation of slowing growth in China, a fall of this size wouldn't have totally surprised us. The price is now $60 that did.
Not quite so huge (so far) but still of interest are events in Cuba (where the capitalist genie is now surely completely out of the bottle) and in North Korea where the hacking of Sony seems to have led to the start of a mini-cyberwar. This could get interesting in 2015.
But there have been surprises closer to home too. We knew there was chatter around pensions in the government and we have long lobbied for an end to the annuity system in the UK. But we were stunned by just how far George Osborne has been prepared to go in freeing up our retirement finances.
Your pension is now yours to take as and when you wish post-55 subject to your marginal rate of income tax. You can also pass it to your heirs free of inheritance tax.
Given the upfront tax breaks, this is all so generous we aren't sure we approve and we have a nasty feeling that a Labour government might not either. More on that in 2015.
The first issue in January will be packed with predictions for the year ahead political, economic and financial. But for now we offer you Matthew Lynn's forecasts (which include a happy future for Gordon Brown at RBS) and our exceptionally expert roundtable.
I think it is one of our best yet: a good many of the suggestions that have come out of it will find their way into my self-invested personal pension.
Finally, if you think reading MoneyWeek every week this year has made you particularly knowledgable, you will find our quiz. If you think there is a way to go, read our holiday reading list. A very happy New Year to all our readers.
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Christmas at Chatsworth: review of The Cavendish Hotel at BaslowMoneyWeek Travel Matthew Partridge gets into the festive spirit at The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow and the Christmas market at Chatsworth
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Tycoon Truong My Lan on death row over world’s biggest bank fraudProperty tycoon Truong My Lan has been found guilty of a corruption scandal that dwarfs Malaysia’s 1MDB fraud and Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto scam
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Beat the cost of living crisis – go on holidayEditor's letter As inflation rages, energy bills soar and the pound tanks, what’s a good way to save money this winter? Go on holiday, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
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How capitalism has been undermined by poor governanceEditor's letter Capitalism’s “ruthless efficiency” has been undermined by poor governance, a lack of competition and central banks’ over-enthusiastic money printing, says Andrew Van Sickle.
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Don't be scared by economic forecastingEditor's letter The Bank of England warned last week the UK will tip into recession this year. But predictions about stockmarkets, earnings or macroeconomic trends can be safely ignored, says Andrew Van Sickle.
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The biggest change in the last 17 years – the death of the “Greenspan put”Editor's letter Since I joined MoneyWeek 17 years ago, says John Stepek, we’ve seen a global financial crisis, a eurozone sovereign debt crisis , several Chinese growth scares, a global pandemic, and a land war in Europe. But the biggest change is the death of the “Greenspan put”.
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The wolf returns to the eurozone’s doorEditor's letter The eurozone’s intrinsic flaws have been exposed again as investors’ fears about Italy’s ability to pay its debt sends bond yields soaring.
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Things won't just return to normal – that's not how inflation worksEditor's letter You might think that, if inflation is indeed “transitory”, we just need to wait and everything will return to “normal”. But this is a grave misunderstanding of how inflation works, says John Stepek.
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Car hire and the strangeness of the post-pandemic economyEditor's letter A global shortage of hire cars and unusually high hotel occupancy rates sum up the post-pandemic global economy in a nutshell, says Merryn Somerset Webb, with enhanced demand meeting restricted supply.
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Why we need to get a grip on our governmentEditor's letter Our government is trying to do too much, enacting policies that are destructive to the private sector. It needs to drop the the feel-good nonsense and create policies that lead to long-term wealth, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
