Buy-to-let: the market’s Achilles heel

The UK housing market is now dominated by buy-to-let investors. But a combination of rising interest rates and falling yields could make many investors' positions untenable, says James Ferguson.

House prices in the UK have looked like a classic bubble for some time now. I first warned on this for MoneyWeek three years ago because affordability looked dangerously stretched. Since then prices have risen 18%, according to Nationwide. But as the dot.com bubble showed, once prices are unsustainably high, they can always run further before the final trigger that causes the crash. What we're seeing now in the credit markets could be that trigger. The credit market turmoil may seem esoteric to the man in the street but mortgage rates aren't just down to the Bank of England base rate. Northern Rock for example, sources more than 75% of its funds through the wholesale market, where the spread (or premium) over LIBOR (the London Inter-Bank Offer Rate) has gone from as low as 0.1% in January to more than 0.6% now. That is equal to another half-a-percent rate rise in its cost of funding, that will have to be added on top of the 0.75% rise in base rates since the start of the year.

Gone are the days when borrowers could expect to pay a small, or even zero, premium over base rates for their mortgage. As credit spreads normalise to reflect the true risks lenders are taking, even the best mortgage rates will now need to be 0.5% higher than base rates. If base rates do indeed rise to 6% and spreads do rise to 0.5% over that, a standard 25-year repayment rate would be equivalent to 8.1%. On the average UK first-time buyer's house price of £164,000, and assuming a £25,000 deposit, that'd now be £938 a month.

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Why not? Well, in 2000, according to the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit, the median loan multiple for a first-time buyer was 2.4 times salary. Now, 2.4 times the median wage implies a mortgage of no more than £45,000, so that's a house price of £55-60,000. First-time buyers' house prices are typically 2/3 of the national mean, so a return to normalcy of this nature implies house prices averaging just £85-90,000. I'm not saying house prices will fall by more than 60% but they could clearly have a severe tumble. It all rests on the different profile of the buy-to-let investor compared to the first-time buyer. The reality is that buy-to-let investors look just like sub-prime borrowers. Good quality owner-occupiers prefer big deposits and low loan-to-value. They prefer repayment mortgages over interest-only, and want to pay their mortgage off as quickly as possible, so prefer shorter loan periods and less frequent remortgaging. They also have a good reason to work hard to hang onto their homes in the event of trouble, and prefer to safeguard against this by having a decent income cushion over and above their mortgage costs. They may even have income insurance or other protection - which is ultimately protection for the lender.

Subprime borrowers, on the other hand, are very sensitive to rising interest rates, because they have little income over and above their mortgage costs. They like to borrow with as little deposit as possible. They are liable to remortgage frequently, and opt for interest-only mortgages when they do. And buy-to-let investors are exactly the same. It's salutary to remember that in the old days, non-owner-occupiers were charged more for a mortgage precisely because it was felt that if they didn't live there, they'd have less incentive to make payments if things got tight. But it's been a long time since mortgage lenders had borrowers streaming in and just leaving the keys to the property at reception. It may be that, as is happening now across the credit markets, lenders to buy-to-let investors are about to re-learn the lessons of prudent lending.

James Ferguson also runs his own share-tipping service, Model Investor.

James Ferguson qualified with an MA (Hons) in economics from Edinburgh University in 1985. For the last 21 years he has had a high-powered career in institutional stock broking, specialising in equities, working for Nomura, Robert Fleming, SBC Warburg, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein and Mitsubishi Securities.