In June, the price of Brent crude oil hit $115 a barrel, an eight-month high. But the spike didn't last long. This week, oil was down at an eight-month low, below $104.
The Islamic State insurgency in Iraq had fuelled fears of major supply disruptions, but the jihadists' stronghold is largely confined to the north of Iraq, and Iraqi exports come mostly from the south.
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Elsewhere, reckons Barclays, any disruptions to Russian supplies due to sanctions are likely to be eclipsed by sliding demand in Russia as the economy weakens.
So, while geopolitical jitters will keep markets on their toes, so far a major disruption to oil supplies seems unlikely.
And as far as the fundamentals are concerned, the market looks well supplied with oil. Libyan production has rebounded in recent weeks and US stockpiles recently hit a record. Demand growth is subdued, with Europe's economies struggling and Chinese growth ebbing in recent years.
The upshot, according to Barclays, is that prices will stay in the trading range of recent years, averaging $108 a barrel in 2015 and $109 this year.
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Football fans issued warning over ticket scams ahead of 2026 World CupSantander customers lost more to football scams in the first six months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, when total losses surged due to the Euros
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Nationwide fined £44 million over “inadequate” anti-money laundering systemsFailings in Nationwide’s financial crime processes between October 2016 to July 2021 meant one criminal was able to deposit £26 million from fraudulent Covid furlough payments in just eight days.
