After a nasty slide in 2013, gold has found its feet again, gaining almost 10% this year to around $1,340 an ounce. Some investors have sought shelter from emerging-market turmoil in the metal, while fears that the weather might not be solely responsible for the weak recent run of data in America have also helped.
What's more, the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve have both made it clear that interest rates will stay low for a long time, which has reawakened fears that "central banks will stay too easy for too long", says John Authers in the FT.
Central banks mis-steps, and other reasons to fear that inflation could make a comeback in the next few years, mean that investors should keep around 5%-10% of their portfolio in gold as an insurance policy. But for now, the upside looks limited.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
On the plus side, many gold mines become unprofitable at around $1,200, implying that supply will begin to shrink and bolster prices. Growing emerging-market demand for gold for jewellery and investment also helps establish a floor for the price.
But rising US real interest rates "will remain a powerful headwind against gold", says Capital Economics. As the US and the global economy recover, the US central bank is set to wind down its money-printing programme and eventually raise interest rates.
Higher real interest rates are always bad for gold as it yields nothing and so becomes less appealing compared to interest-bearing assets.
Gold can climb a bit further in the short term (Capital Economics sees scope for a rise to $1,450 by the end of the year), but if there is another surge to record levels as inflation returns, it will be a few years away.
-
Is a mortgage in retirement always a bad idea?A mystery shopper exercise shows high street lenders are “shunning” retirees looking to take out a mortgage. Are they right to do so?
-
Three funds to consider as UK small caps trade at 30% discountUK small caps have been unloved for some time, but a shifting economic environment could give them a boost
-
Gold regains some of its shineNews The gold price perked up this week, hitting a four-week high.
-
Gold regains its shine after inflation risks resurfaceAnalysis Gold prices have been rising over the past month as fears of US inflation resurface. Saloni Sardana explains whether this could usher in a new bullish era for the precious metal.
-
The going looks good for goldAdvice With inflation fears rising and interest rates nailed to the floor, the outlook for gold is bright, says John Stepek.
-
Mark Mobius: “I love gold”Features Mark Mobius, perhaps the best-known emerging markets investor in the world, reckons that gold should form at least 10% of any investor’s portfolio. And now is a good time to buy.
-
Gold is poised for a new bull marketFeatures The price of golf has hit a six-year high, breaching the $1,400 an ounce level not seen since August 2013.
-
Gold could stagnate for several years – but don’t make Gordon Brown’s mistakeFeatures The price of gold is going nowhere fast. Like Gordon Brown did 20 years ago, you may be tempted to sell. But, just as with Brown, that would be a big mistake. Dominic Frisby explains why.
-
Why you need to own goldTutorials All the talk of Modern Monetary Theory misses one key point, says Eoin Treacy. We’re already well down the road of printing money to fund government spending.
-
Fed interest-rate rises won’t hold the gold price backFeatures Some analysts worry that higher US interest rates are bearish for gold. But the evidence doesn’t bear this out.
