Gold has risen for 12 years in a row. But it looks unlikely to extend its run to 13 prices have fallen by almost 25% this year, to a near three-month low.
The prospect of America breaching its debt ceiling hasn't given gold much of a lift, largely because markets seem to have assumed that a deal will be done.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
This has been offset by, but not fully compensated for, strong demand for jewellery, coins and gold bars in Asia. But recently, Chinese demand has faded. So the short-term view is not encouraging.
However, investors should continue to hold a small amount of gold as insurance. Longer term, as incomes in emerging markets grow, demand for jewellery, or for protection from potential turmoil or inflation, should rise.
Emerging-market central banks continue to diversify their foreign exchange holdings. And an eventual surge in inflation following widespread money printing can hardly be discounted, notes Roger Bootle of Capital Economics especially if "at some stage governments and central banks... choose [higher inflation] in order to try to escape from the debt burden".
-
HMRC savings tax crackdown: More workers to pay tax directly from their wagesBanks and building societies will be required to obtain National Insurance numbers from savers to make it easier for HMRC to tax those who breach their personal savings allowance
-
It’s time to start backing the UK stock marketThe UK stock market has been languishing for decades. But the tide is turning and smart investors should buy in now
-
Gold regains some of its shineNews The gold price perked up this week, hitting a four-week high.
-
Gold regains its shine after inflation risks resurfaceAnalysis Gold prices have been rising over the past month as fears of US inflation resurface. Saloni Sardana explains whether this could usher in a new bullish era for the precious metal.
-
The going looks good for goldAdvice With inflation fears rising and interest rates nailed to the floor, the outlook for gold is bright, says John Stepek.
-
Mark Mobius: “I love gold”Features Mark Mobius, perhaps the best-known emerging markets investor in the world, reckons that gold should form at least 10% of any investor’s portfolio. And now is a good time to buy.
-
Gold is poised for a new bull marketFeatures The price of golf has hit a six-year high, breaching the $1,400 an ounce level not seen since August 2013.
-
Why you need to own goldTutorials All the talk of Modern Monetary Theory misses one key point, says Eoin Treacy. We’re already well down the road of printing money to fund government spending.
-
Fed interest-rate rises won’t hold the gold price backFeatures Some analysts worry that higher US interest rates are bearish for gold. But the evidence doesn’t bear this out.
-
The weak US dollar trade is still on – stick with goldFeatures With little chance of higher US interest rates in the near future, the weak dollar trade is still on. John Stepek explains why, and the best way to profit.
