Thomas Cook feeling winter chill, but summer looks brighter

Fears that Thomas Cook might disappear slowly beneath the horizon have proved unfounded, with the troubled package tour operator saying trading across the group has stabilised, helped by its recently launched advertising campaign.

Winter season bookings remain subdued, although they have improved in recent weeks, while there are some promising signs that the summer season might be a decent one.

Winter

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In the UK, winter bookings are down 4% year-on-year (yoy), with the programme booked 91% of the way to being fully booked, which is about the same as at this time last year.

Cumulative winter bookings in Central Europe are down 3% yoy but the average selling price is up 3%.

Winter bookings have been stable in the West & East segment since the last update, and reflect lower bookings to the MENA (Middle East, North Africa) region, particularly in France. Cumulative bookings are down 18%, in line with the reduction in planned capacity, while average selling prices are up 4%, reflecting a greater proportion of long haul bookings.

Bookings in Northern Europe are up 10%, in line with capacity increases which largely reflect growth in a competitive marketplace. Pricing has remained stable since the last update, but margins are weaker due to lower average selling prices and higher costs, especially fuel which has a more significant impact on the longer haul winter destinations.

The German airlines business has seen bookings rise 20% from a year ago, helped by an 18% increase in planned capacity, but average selling prices have fallen 5% yoy.

Summer

Moving on to summer bookings, UK bookings are 2% behind the prior year. Mainstream bookings are down 10% but with planned capacity down 12% THomas Cook has 17% fewer holidays left to sell compared to prior year.

The average selling price is stable at +4% yoy and the firm's independent and specialist businesses, which perhaps have not been tarnished by the reputational damage to Thomas Cook's name, continue to perform well, with bookings up 14%.

The group's clunky user-unfriendly web sites have been improved, resulting in mainstream online bookings seeing a substantial uplift, with online bookings up 19% in the last four weeks.

Central Europe summer bookings are in line with planned capacity, with the last four weeks' trading 10% ahead of prior year. Pricing has improved despite the competition in the market and margins are stable.

Trading across all markets in West & East Europe remains challenging, largely driven by lower consumer demand, and is particularly challenging in France. However, bookings in recent weeks have shown a better trend. Further capacity has been taken out as part of the group's actions to reduce its exposure to these markets.

Bookings have improved in Northern Europe and are now trending towards capacity. Prices are up 6%.

Bookings are up 2% in Airlines Germany with capacity increasing 7%, predominantly on long haul destinations. Yields are up 5%, partly driven by a higher share of intercontinental routes and the introduction of a fuel surcharge.

"As we stated in our first quarter results, we continue to expect 2011/12 to be a challenging year given the economic backdrop and difficult trading environment, particularly for winter. The trends which we saw in the first quarter have continued through the second quarter, but summer trading is more encouraging," the group said.

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