The gold price moved sideways this week, trading at just under $1,600 an ounce, continuing the downward trend from the metal's 2012 peak at the end of February. However, Ronald-Peter Stoeferle of Erste Group Research thinks it may be about to make another major upwards move.
The reasons are twofold. First there's the inflationary increase in the monetary base since the start of the financial crisis and secondly "financial repression" (negative interest rates) is increasingly being seen as part of the solution. He thinks the price could rise to an eye-popping $8,300 per ounce.
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However, he points out that the major buyers so far are emerging-market central banks, including India and China. They are buying gold in an attempt to keep pace with their increasing (and devaluing) reserves of paper currencies, such as the dollar. In the longer term he foresees a major country, such as China, abandoning the dollar altogether to create a gold-backed currency.
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