Turkey of the week: bearish outlook for restaurant and hotels group

If we do see a double-dip recession arrive in late 2010, it could be the final straw for this this hotelier and restaurant operator, says Paul Hill.

One benefit of the credit crunch is that British hotels are much cheaper to stay in. Falling demand means lots of empty beds, leading to a price war between the big operators that should run well into 2010.

Whitbread's Premier Inn (which accounts for 70% of group profits) is the top budget hotel with a 40% market share. Its "summer sizzling break" campaign launched in June, making 250,000 nights available at £29 each. Number-two player Travelodge answered with a £19 tariff, triggering a flood of discounts from other mid-market hotels.

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Paul gained a degree in electrical engineering and went on to qualify as a chartered management accountant. He has extensive corporate finance and investment experience and is a member of the Securities Institute.

Over the past 16 years Paul has held top-level financial management and M&A roles for blue-chip companies such as O2, GKN and Unilever. He is now director of his own capital investment and consultancy firm, PMH Capital Limited.

Paul is an expert at analysing companies in new, fast-growing markets, and is an extremely shrewd stock-picker.