The ‘secret deflator’ used to fiddle the GDP figures
Rather than use the RPI to calculate GDP, the government uses its own ‘secret deflator’. And that gives a completely different view of the economy.
I wrote here a few weeks ago about the oddly opaque manner in which the government figures out what inflation-adjusted GDP growth in the UK is.
It doesn't use the RPI or the CPI as a representative of inflation - as you might think they would instead, it uses its own deflator. I have no idea how that is calculated, and I strongly suspect that almost no one else does either.
Article continues belowTry 6 free issues of MoneyWeek today
Get unparalleled financial insight, analysis and expert opinion you can profit from.
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
James Ferguson at MacroStrategy Partners has kindly picked this point up for me and produced this chart:
Real GDP vs NGDP adjusted for RPI
If you assume that the Office for National Statistics' occult calculations for the deflator are entirely reasonable and correct, the UK has avoided a double dip recession (hooray!).
If, on the other hand, you note that the deflator and the RPI have rarely diverged in the past, and so think that using the RPI to deflate nominal GDP continues to make perfect sense, it turns out that the real economy has been contracting since 2008 (boo!).
That's not a double dip. It is a depression.
