How car finance and diesel emissions could be the carmakers’ undoing

New car finance offer © Getty Images
Personal contract plans now account for nine in every ten car sales

Who should be most worried about the collapse in the price of diesel cars? For most commentators it is those who don’t own their cars outright. Personal contract plans (PCPs ) now account for nine in every ten car sales and mean that pretty much anyone with a job can nip down to a car showroom and drive off in a brand new car.

Forty percent of those who do that, drive off in a brand new diesel car – the value of which is now falling fast (by anything from 9%-20% from pre-diesel-scare levels so far depending on who you listen to). That means that anyone wanting to get out of their PCP deal early could find themselves with a nasty bill.

A PCP deal is based on an assumed value for the car at the end of the term (usually three years). At the end of the term you return the car. You can buy it for that assumed value – now a guaranteed minimum value. Or you can leave it.

If you leave it (as most people do) and the car is worth more than the minimum value, you can use that “equity” to reduce the deposit on your next deal. But if you break the deal before the end, there is no guaranteed minimum – if the car has depreciated faster than assumed, you have to pay the difference. Doesn’t sound nice, does it?

But to look at the problem from the point of view of the car buyer is to look at it the wrong way around. Most buyers will complete the three-year term: the payments are relatively low and they will have budgeted for them. They might have no equity at the end, but they will have no debt either. There is no real problem. They can downgrade or get the bus.

It is the finance firms who will have the problem: they will have guaranteed minimum values that may well now turn out to be significantly higher than the actual resale value of the diesel cars. So, thanks to optimistic forecasts about the future path of the used car market (this sounds familiar because it is exactly what happened to mortgage lenders in the housing bubble), they will be taking a hit on every car returned. And that, as Stuart Pearson of Exane BNP Paribas told the FT, is going to be the thing that “pulls the rug from under the “great lease bubble.”

There are hints of what might happen next in the US: last November, Hertz took a $63m “depreciation adjustment charge” against its profits as it changed its assumptions (down…) about the resale value of cars coming off financing deals.

In the UK, 70% of PCP deals come from the leasing divisions of the big car companies. As prices fall they are the place to look if you want to see the pain appearing.

  • Graham Hill

    This is unfortunately an incredibly ill informed piece but it is not alone. First of all, minor point the scheme is a Personal Contract Purchase, an extension and modification of Hire Purchase. Those who take out a PCP or Personal Contract Hire should be least worried about a drop in Diesel values which are being wildly overstated. If the car you have on a PCP dramatically drops in value and you keep the car till the end of the agreement you give the car back to the leasing company and pass the loss over to them so you are quids in. If you paid cash for the car you would be also out of pocket if the diesel car you bought suddenly dropped in value, you are not immune to the heavy depreciation just because you owned the car, in fact, as already illustrated, by taking out a PCP you are immune to a sudden drop in value provided you keep the vehicle till the end of the contract and simply hand the car back. A similar position to those who took out a PCP on a VW prior to the emissions debacle. They simply handed the car back and sved themselves a fortune. And if you felt the need to hand the car back prior to the end of the lease you would suffer a loss as you would with an HP agreement or a personal loan with the car being valued less than the early termination cost. But to avoid this discrepancy you simply exercise your right under sections 99 and 100 of the Consumer Credit Act and Voluntarily Terminate (VT) the agreement by handing the car back to the leasing company once you have paid 50% of the total owed. Oh and don’t worry about the collapse of the leasing industry, what they may provide to their customers as final payments will not necessarily be the figures they stand the cars in their books. They aren’t such poor businessmen not to factor in the unexpected. And it is cars that are coming to the end of their leases now that are most vulnerable, new leases will reflect potential lower values in 3 years, the average term of a PCP.

Merryn

Claim 12 issues of MoneyWeek (plus much more) for just £12!

Let MoneyWeek show you how to profit, whatever the outcome of the upcoming general election.

Start your no-obligation trial today and get up to speed on:

  • The latest shifts in the economy…
  • The ongoing Brexit negotiations…
  • The new tax rules…
  • Trump’s protectionist policies…

Plus lots more.

We’ll show you what it all means for your money.

Plus, the moment you begin your trial, we’ll rush you over THREE free investment reports:

‘How to escape the most hated tax in Britain’: Inheritance tax hits many unsuspecting families. Our report tells how to pass on up to £2m of your money to your family without the taxman getting a look in.

‘How to profit from a Trump presidency’: The election of Donald Trump was a watershed moment for the US economy. This report details the sectors our analysts think will boom from Trump’s premiership, and gives specific investments you can buy to profit.

‘Best shares to watch in 2017’: Includes the transcript from our roundtable panel of investment professionals – and 12 tips they’re currently tipping. The report also analyses key assets, including property, oil and the countries whose stock markets currently offer the most value.