An exciting time to be trading the euro

There have been some pretty exciting developments in the euro since I last wrote about it: The euro rallies – but what now?

And the question posed – ‘what now?’ – was well and truly answered – in spades.

Let’s recap the position when I left the euro on 29 June. Here is the chart:

EUR/USD spread betting currency chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

The market was making a potential A-B-C corrective rally right to my upper tramline – and was on a potential negative momentum divergence.

I said that if the market could punch through the tramline and reach 1.4460, my target was the 1.46 area.

Later on 29 June, it hit 1.4460. And, as we all know now, it came to within 30 pips of my 1.46 target.

But that was it – the market simply plunged from that rally and crashed through all of my short-term tramlines. (These are now invalid for forecasting.)

Now my 1.4460 level was acting as resistance!

EUR/USD spread betting currency chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

The late break on 5 July punched through support at 1.4460, which indicated short trades.

It was downhill from then on, with the market reaching the 1.3850 area before bouncing.

After such a sharp move, I always like to refer back to the long-range daily chart for perspective.

Here is the chart showing my long-term tramline trio:

EUR/USD spread betting currency chart

(Click on the chart for a larger version)

The market is currently bouncing off the lowest tramline in the 1.39 area to correct a very short-term oversold situation.

Short-term traders will be taking profits in this period.

Long-term traders will be holding, looking for further moves down (but using protective stops, I hope!)

But what now?

There is no question that the euro is in trouble after defying gravity for so long.

The US problems, although not insignificant (!), are pretty well known and are out in the open.

On the other hand, eurozone skeletons are emerging from the cupboard almost daily. As I write, Italy has popped into the firing line.

Bond yields are moving up – a bad sign, as more euro money-printing becomes a greater possibility. That will further weaken the currency.

With this background, I fully expect the recent 1.46 high to hold for some time, and I shall be trading from the short side.

But after such a swoon, I expect sharp counter-trend rallies. I will use these to position short trades, and I will be looking for A-B-C patterns on the rallies.

This summer is shaping up to be more eventful than most.

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