Reza Pahlavi was an 18-year-old studying in Texas when his father was deposed as the Shah of Iran in 1979. A year later, on the Shah's death, he declared himself the country's rightful ruler. “Few took his political aspirations seriously,” says the Financial Times. Pahlavi “appeared destined for a life of quiet prosperity in Washington's suburbs, occasionally appearing at think-tank events, book launches and gala dinners”. But as mass protests rocked Iran, he began hoping that would change and launched a campaign to position himself as the country's leader-in-waiting – “a unifying leader capable of rallying all democratic forces in the nation should its theocratic regime be toppled”.
Of late, events haven't been going quite to plan, says The Times. If Pahlavi was heartened by the death of supreme leader Ali Khameini and other hardliners, the assumption of power by the latter's son, Mojtaba Khameini, is a setback. So, too, is the somewhat dismissive attitude of the US commander-in-chief. Despite the crown prince's efforts to project himself as a power broker in Washington, Donald Trump appears to have pooh-poohed the notion.
He “looks like a very nice person”, observed Trump last week, but “it would seem to me that somebody from within, maybe, would be more appropriate”. Somebody “currently popular”. Attempts by Pahlavi's Paris-based team to urge the president “to abandon his view of Venezuela as a model for Iran” are falling on deaf ears.
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Compared with the White House's Hobbesian plan (or absence of one) for the future government of Iran, Pahlavi's looks like a model of democracy – involving a referendum on the new system of government, followed by the election of a constituent assembly and ratification of a constitution over two to three years. And he might point to a precedent – the return of King Juan Carlos, following the death in 1969 of the Spanish dictator Franco, helped build a lasting democratic system.
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But although some Iranians perceive Pahlavi as “an opposition leader”, others consider him merely “opportunistic”, says The Conversation. It's hard to forget that his father “ruled Iran with an iron fist” from 1941 to 1979, deploying a secret police arguably every bit as vicious against dissidents as the ayatollahs' later enforcers.
All the while, Pahlavi and his siblings combined a gilded life in the imperial palace with plenty of glamorous foreign travel.
Reza Pahlavi is playing the long game
Pahlavi's adult life has been dominated by political activism against the Islamic Republic – aided by his wife Yasmine Etemad-Amini, a fellow refugee from the revolution and a former attorney active in human-rights advocacy, particularly on issues affecting Iranian women.
There's always been speculation – both within Iran and outside – about the extent of the family's fortune. A 1979 Washington Post investigation described the Shah's wealth as “staggering”. But there's no public record of how much of it was smuggled out. The family has several lovely houses in America, but taken together they suggest “assets in the low-to-mid single-digit millions”.
On a personal level, Pahlavi is much admired, says Politico. But some supporters have been unnerved by the “slash-and-burn tactics” adopted by his team as it seeks “to dominate the Iranian opposition”. Others note that Pahlavi's political agenda has shifted to the right, threatening his appeal across a broad swathe of Iranian society. Still, plenty of Iranians might be “willing to settle” for him. Whether they get the chance to is another matter. Last week, traders on prediction market Polymarket assigned a roughly 13% chance that Pahlavi will “lead Iran” in 2026, down from 17% in February. His odds are falling, but he's in for the long game.
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