The euro has gained 8% against the US dollar this year. In response, European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde has promised to “monitor carefully” developments in the foreign exchange market.
A rising euro creates two problems: firstly, it means lower import prices. Eurozone consumer price inflation turned negative in August, so more deflationary pressure is unwelcome. Secondly, it hits the earnings of exporters, especially significant in a bloc where exports make up about 45% of GDP and bourses are crammed full of multinationals.
Confidence in Europe’s economic recovery has encouraged international investors to buy into local markets, juicing the euro’s rally, says Jack Ewing in The New York Times. Ironically, that surge now risks dampening the recovery that started it. The ECB would prefer a weaker currency, but there is a tacit “non-aggression pact” between big central banks when it comes to exchange rates: actively talking down the euro would risk retaliation from Washington, sparking a self-defeating “currency war”.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
In any case, as Andrew Kenningham of Capital Economics points out, the current valuation is hardly eye-watering: the euro last traded at around $1.18 in 2018 and was as high as $1.38 back in 2014. The stronger euro will thus be a headwind, but it looks unlikely to sink eurozone stocks.
-
Older renters £2,000 worse-off than homeowners – the risks of renting in retirementThere are financial risks to renting in your golden years, research suggests
-
Waspi women targeted in fake compensation scamThe Waspi campaign has warned of a steep rise in fraudulent websites which claim compensation is available for 1950s-born women affected by state pension age changes
-
Out of America's shadow: Why Trump's tariff chaos may be good for non-US stocksOpinion Upending global investment and trade could benefit other countries at the expense of the US market, says Cris Sholto Heaton
-
BP's 'long, painful decline' – and why next year could be even tougherOpinion Long-suffering shareholders in oil giant BP have been pushing for change. It won’t come soon enough, says Matthew Lynn
-
Investment trusts tap the profits in exotic and obscure global marketsOpinion Peter Walls, manager of the Unicorn Mastertrust fund, highlights three investment trusts as he shares where he'd put his money
-
Falling revenues and mounting debt spell trouble for Jumia TechnologiesStruggling African e-commerce platform Jumia Technologies looks headed for the exit, says Dr Matthew Partridge.
-
Next reports £1 billion in annual profits for the first time – what's next for the retailer?Clothing retailer Next has become only the fourth member of its sector to surpass £1 billion in annual profits. What does this mean for the company's future?
-
Best of British bargains: cash in on undervalued companies in the UK stock marketOpinion Michael Field, Chief Equity Market Strategist, EMEA, Morningstar, selects three attractive UK stocks where he'd put his money
-
Building firm Keller presents low debt and ample scope for growthGeotechnical contractor Keller, which supports vital global infrastructure, boasts rising profits and a cheap valuation
-
PZ Cussons share price down 75% in last decade – why it's one to watchOpinion Once-strong consumer-goods business PZ Cussons is out of favour with the market. That spells opportunity for investors, says Jamie Ward
