Should you invest in Trainline?
Ticket seller Trainline offers a useful service – and good prospects for investors


The fund manager Peter Lynch was known for his theory that you should “buy what you know”. Of course, this was a bit more than simply buying the brands you encounter in your day-to-day shopping. Lynch also meant companies that you interact with through your job, or through being part of an industry, and he pointed out that you still had to do your homework to understand the business, balance sheet and valuation. But the logic is clear: sometimes the service you get helps you see why a company makes sense as an investment.
For me, Trainline (LSE: TRN) is a good example of this. The company specialises in selling rail tickets for the entire UK rail network. As someone who does a lot of long train journeys outside London, I find it useful in helping me to find the quickest route and the cheapest ticket, all for a low booking fee. Customer service is also good: in the cases when I’ve accidentally bought more tickets than I need, they have been fine with cancelling them and refunding me, provided I give a reasonable amount of notice.
Is Trainline a good stock to buy?
Of course, Trainline is not universally popular. The RMT trade union recently accused Trainline of ripping off customers and not properly updating timetables to account for delays. However, since the RMT represents those who work in station ticket offices, this should be taken with a pinch of salt. Trainline’s popularity suggests that many users feel that it delivers a far greater degree of convenience compared with ticket machines.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
While there has been talk about the UK government building its own app – especially if the rail network is gradually taken into public ownership over the next five years – the realistic chances of this seem low to me. In any case, Trainline has been diversifying its model, branching out into bus travel (including National Express in the UK), as well as moving into continental Europe (where growing competition between multiple operators creates an opportunity for a single website).
With rail transport being seen as the green alternative to roads, it’s not surprising that Trainline’s revenue has been growing quickly, nearly doubling between 2019 and 2024. It has also managed to expand its operating margins, which are now nearly 20%, and it has a double-digit return on capital employed. Debt is moderate, which should enable it to withstand any downturn. All told, the valuation of 24 times the forecast earnings for 2025 seems reasonable.
Trainline’s shares are also benefiting from short-term momentum. Several brokers have upgraded their earnings forecasts in light of its string of half-year earnings, which caused its shares to jump by more than 20% over the last month. The price is above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average. I would therefore go long at the current price of 404p at £6 per 1p, with a stop-loss of 254p. This would give you a total downside of £900.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
8 of the best lakeside properties for sale
The best lakeside properties – from a house on the southeastern shore of Loch Lomond, to a 15th-century hall overlooking a lake in King’s Lynn, Norfolk
-
Gold’s allure and why you should never 'pay a premium for graded coins'
It is easy to become distracted by the beauty of gold, but remember why you buy it, says Dominic Frisby
-
Investment opportunities in the world of Coca-Cola
There is far more to Coca-Cola than just one giant firm. The companies that bottle and distribute the ubiquitous soft drink are promising investments in their own right.
-
Streaming services are the new magic money tree for investors – but for how long?
Opinion Streaming services are in full bloom and laden with profits, but beware – winter is coming, warns Matthew Lynn
-
'Pension funds shouldn't be pushed into private equity sector'
Opinion The private-equity party is over, so don't push pension funds into the sector, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Greg Abel: Warren Buffett’s heir takes the throne
Greg Abel is considered a safe pair of hands as he takes centre stage at Berkshire Hathaway. But he arrives after one of the hardest acts to follow in investment history, Warren Buffett. Can he thrive?
-
Who will be the next Warren Buffett?
Opinion There won’t be another Warren Buffett. Times have changed, and the opportunities are no longer there, says Matthew Lynn.
-
Will Comstock crash – or soar?
Opinion The upside for Comstock, a solar panel-recycling and biomass-refining group, dwarfs the downside, says Dominic Frisby.
-
'As AGMs go digital, firms must offer a new form of scrutiny for shareholders'
Opinion Technology has rendered big AGM meet-ups obsolete, but the board still needs to be held to account, says Matthew Lynn
-
Unilever braces for inflation amid tariff uncertainty – what does it mean for investors?
Consumer-goods giant Unilever has made steady progress simplifying its operations. Will tariffs now cause turbulence?