Scottish Mortgage confirms its SpaceX valuation: what does it mean for investors?
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust has issued a briefing note to investors clarifying how its largest holding – space exploration start-up SpaceX – is valued.
Scottish Mortgage has confirmed its holding in space exploration start-up SpaceX is valued below the level the firm is rumoured to be targeting at its upcoming initial public offering (IPO). That could potentially mean an uplift in Scottish Mortgage’s value at the time of the listing, if SpaceX achieves the rumoured price tag, though experts caution that IPOs can be volatile and unpredictable periods.
Managed by Baillie Gifford and one of the UK’s most popular investment trusts, Scottish Mortgage (LON:SMT) invests in innovative companies in which it sees the potential for long-term growth.
As of 30 April, SpaceX – one of the major players in the burgeoning space economy – is Scottish Mortgage’s largest holding, accounting for 18%% of the portfolio.
Try 6 free issues of MoneyWeek today
Get unparalleled financial insight, analysis and expert opinion you can profit from.
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
“Scottish Mortgage first invested in SpaceX in December 2018, deploying capital through to August 2021, with a total investment of £151 million (approximately $200 million at the time of purchase),” said Tom Slater, manager of Scottish Mortgage. Despite no additional capital having been invested since then, Slater confirmed that “SpaceX has been the trust’s largest contributor to returns over one, three and five years, and the fifth‑largest contributor over 10 years”.
Since SpaceX is a private company, its shares don’t trade daily like those of a listed company. That means its value doesn’t fluctuate day by day; instead, it changes intermittently during specific ‘liquidity events’, when insiders sell shares on private markets.
SpaceX is expected to list later this year, and, according to reports, could target a value as high as $1.75 trillion. While this valuation hasn’t yet materialised – and may not, depending on what happens when the company lists – there is an expectation within the market that it could soon be worth this much.
That poses a conundrum for funds and investment trusts that hold its shares. What are they really worth – their level at the company’s last liquidity event, or its rumoured value at a future IPO?
Scottish Mortgage reveals SpaceX valuation
Scottish Mortgage confronted this question in a briefing note on 12 May clarifying that, as of 31 March 2026, the trust values its SpaceX holding based on a $1.25 trillion valuation. This follows “a revaluation during the first quarter as secondary market transactions were rebased to reflect the merged valuation of SpaceX and xAI” – the latter being the artificial intelligence start-up founded, like SpaceX, by Elon Musk.
The trust also clarified that its valuations for SpaceX and other private companies it holds are based on “verifiable transactions rather than market commentary or press speculation” and that they are determined by Baillie Gifford’s valuations team as well as an independent third-party provider, S&P Global.
Even at this valuation, SpaceX has delivered excellent returns for Scottish Mortgage since its initial investment.
“As at 31 March 2026, the holding was valued at £2.98 billion (approximately $3.94 billion), representing an increase of around 19 times the original investment,” said Slater.
But given the rumoured IPO valuation is 40% higher that the trust is currently marking them, could a value bump await Scottish Mortgage shareholders as and when SpaceX lists?
How might a SpaceX IPO impact Scottish Mortgage?
It’s hard to say how a SpaceX IPO could impact the investment trust. For one thing, Scottish Mortgage made it clear in the briefing note that at this stage there is no clarity over what restrictions may apply to existing shareholders post‑listing. They could be subject to a lock-up period – a defined period after a company IPOs, usually 90-180 days – during which major pre-existing shareholders are not allowed to trade their shares.
“Even if SpaceX shares jump to the rumoured IPO valuation level, the Scottish Mortgage management team may not be able to take profits initially,” said Ben Johnson, senior analyst at investment manager Charles Stanley. “The team have made their peace with this and have communicated this clearly.”
The market may also have started to price future gains in already. While the average UK investment trust trades at a discount to its net asset value (NAV) of around 12%, Scottish Mortgage trades at a premium of around 3.5%.
This probably reflects broad optimism over the trust’s strategy, which leans heavily into growth and tech stocks, according to Chris Beauchamp, chief UK market analyst at investing platform IG, but could also in part reflect the market’s expectation that its SpaceX holding might soon increase in value.
But Beauchamp also cautioned that there is a risk of volatility following any tech IPO.
“It’s a different world once you’re a public company,” said Beauchamp, thanks in large part to increased scrutiny over business fundamentals.
Companies like Meta (formerly Facebook) and Musk’s own Tesla endured share price declines in the aftermath of their respective IPOs.
“The risk with IPOs is that people [who have already invested in the company] are looking for an exit,” said Beauchamp. “There’s so much wealth tied up in it they want to realise, understandably.” This can lead to a high appetite to sell.
“Investors should expect significant volatility in the Scottish Mortgage share price during and after the IPO,” said Johnson. “The trust has never had such a big weight in a single name.” He highlighted, though, that the last company in which the trust had a high double-digit weighting was Tesla, “which proved to be one of its most successful ever investments” over the long term.
