How to invest in the quiet market months
Here's how to invest in the quiet market months, since “sell in May” hasn’t paid off this year.


We've just had the St Leger Stakes – the final classic of the British flat-racing season – so if you believe in investment cliches, now should be an auspicious time to get back into the market.
“Sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger day,” runs the old saying, alluding to the long-standing belief that stocks tend to perform best in the winter months and less well in the summer. Supposedly, this pattern arose because market participants used to retreat to the country for leisure as spring and summer arrived so investing activity dried up. Whether this was really the case isn’t clear. In any case, there’s no reason why the trading habits of Victorian gentlemen should have any bearing on modern markets. Yet the idea that the summer is riskier persists and this adage has been making the rounds more often this year, reflecting a touch of nervousness in the market.
So is there any truth in it? Looking back to 1970 using the MSCI UK index, returns between the start of October and the end of April have been much better on average than returns between the start of May and the end of September. The winter months averaged 9.4%, while the summer months averaged -1.15% (yes, a loss on average). This pattern still holds if we move our start date to 1984 (when the FTSE 100 begins) or to 2000 (since when the UK market has not made much progress in price terms).
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Market averages can be misleading
However, averages can be misleading. From 1970 to 2023, the return from only being in the market between September and April would have beaten the return from holding all the way from September to September in 25 years. Yet holding for the full year would have done better in 28 years. We haven’t got to the end of September yet but, unless there is a big sell-off, this year looks like being more of the latter. Despite the volatility in late July, the market has been up since then. Note too that this is price return, not total return. If you factor in the dividends that an investor would have missed by not holding over the summer, the hit rate was worse.
Sell in May has probably only come out ahead one-third of the time. That said, the worst legs of some of the most savage bear markets have fallen in the summer months (1974, 2001-2002, 2008). So if you calculate the long-term performance of a strategy of selling in May and buying back in September every year, it can seem to beat buying and holding (depending on where you start). However, this is entirely due to a tiny number of extreme events. Knock them out and the outperformance fully reverses, suggesting that it’s a statistical fluke.
Arguably, some degree of summer weakness may still be a real phenomenon: May, June and September have negative returns on average and have been negative a little more frequently than they have been positive (see above). Yet the odds of avoiding losses by selling for the duration of the summer have been worse than a coin toss. Instead, we might tentatively conclude that, if anything, investors should look for chances to buy more cheaply in these months, given that markets have been more likely to rise in the rest of the year.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.
Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.
He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.
-
Is property investment still as safe as houses? Why golden era could be over
The golden era of property is over and investors are better off in the stock market, new research suggests
-
What Santander’s takeover of TSB means for customers
Santander is set to buy rival TSB for £2.65 billion. What does it mean for customers, and could we see the TSB brand disappear from the high street?
-
Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI is on the rocks
Microsoft’s joint venture with OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, appears to be in trouble. What now for the two groups?
-
Investors remain calm as the Middle East war unfolds
Conflict in the Middle East has failed to shake oil or stock markets. Can the peace hold?
-
Carson Block on short-selling and what investors should watch out for when going long
Interview Renowned short seller Carson Block talks to Matthew Partridge about his specialism and where to go long
-
Drinks maker Diageo gets back on its feet – should you invest?
Diageo has faced one disaster after another over the past two years. Is it finally time to buy?
-
Airtel Africa is dialling the right numbers – should you buy?
Opinion Mobile phone services group Airtel Africa is inexpensive and growing fast
-
The British railway industry is in rude health – here's why investors should jump aboard
The railway industry has bounced back from the devastating impact of the pandemic and is entering a new phase of development – and profitability
-
Infrastructure investing: a haven of stable growth amid market turmoil
From booming construction in emerging markets to digital and green transitions, the infrastructure sector offers security, returns and long-term opportunities
-
The costly myth of “sell in May”
Opinion May 2025's strong returns for US stocks have once again shown that putting too much weight on seasonal patterns will only make investors poorer, says Max King