Gold ETFs see first outflows in six months

Gold ETF flows turned negative for the first time in six months during November, potentially signalling a momentum switch for the yellow metal.

There are many ways to invest in gold, giving investors a wide range of options if they want to gain exposure to the precious metal. One approach is to find a gold fund to invest in, with gold ETFs often among the most popular choices.

On the whole, gold investments have had a good year in 2025. The gold price has increased 28.1% in the year to date, and gold funds like the iShares Physical Gold ETC (LON:SGLN) have seen similar price increases.

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“Gold has been on a great run in 2024 and is expected to hold its value next year,” says Hal Cook, senior investment analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

There has historically been a close link between gold ETF flows and the gold price. Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, tells MoneyWeek. "ETFs have played a huge role in gold’s long-term bull market so far this century, helping make it the best-performing asset bar none of the past 25 years."

However, data from the World Gold Council shows that global gold ETFs registered net monthly outflows during November for the first time since April. Assets under management (AUM) by gold ETFs fell by $2.1 billion (4%) during the month which, alongside a slip in the gold price during the month, brought total gold ETF AUM to $274 billion. The gold price fell approximately 3.4% through the month in dollar terms.

Eric Strand, founder and CEO of AuAg Funds, says in HANetf’s Partner Outlook 2025 that this recent cooldown is a consequence of the market “believing” that incoming president Donald Trump will reduce US national debt.

“We, however, do not believe that,” he says. “We believe government costs may become lower but so will income.” This, he suggests, will result in a net deficit and ultimately increase the gold price. “Gold had a first down reaction when Donald Trump was elected last time and then after that gold still returned over 50% during the four years [of his] presidency,” he says.

Year-to-date flows into gold ETFs remained positive at $2.6 billion, and a dip in flows during November doesn’t necessarily signal the end of the gold rally.

“We think we will see an inflationary boom in the coming years,” says Strand. He forecasts that this could take the gold price to over $3,000 during 2025.

Regional gold ETF flows

Flows into gold ETFs remained positive in North America during November, marking five consecutive months of gold ETF inflows in the region. However, this was mainly driven by Canadian funds, which registered $120.2 million inflows. US-based gold ETFs saw net outflows of $41.1 million.

European gold ETFs registered $1.9 billion outflows during the month. According to the World Gold Council, this was driven by several factors including:

• weaker-than-expected macro-economic data;
• concerns over the impact of Trump’s trade tariffs;
• uncertainty over the future of central bank interest rate policy;
• financial markets switching to a risk-on mindset.

It also observes that currency exchange rates could have had an impact, with the euro and the pound still weak while the US dollar has hit new highs for the year. This dynamic could have led to outflows towards FX hedging products.

German gold funds saw most of Europe’s outflows, at $943.9 million, followed by the UK which registered $691.6 million in outflows. France registered a small net inflow, of $33.9 million.

Asian gold ETFs lost $145 million in November, ending a 20 month long streak of consecutive net inflows. Most of the region’s outflows were driven by China, driven by a drop in the local gold price. Indian gold ETFs, on the other hand, saw net inflows for the eighth consecutive month, bringing in $175 million during November.

Which gold funds saw the biggest inflows?

While the aggregate data showed net outflows for gold funds, some individual funds had a more positive month. The table below shows the top ten gold funds globally in terms of their flows during November.

Which gold funds saw the biggest outflows?

On the other side of the ledger, some gold funds suffered particularly large outflows during November.

SPDR Gold Shares, a US-based fund, topped this list with $1.12 billion in outflows during November, followed by the Invesco Physical Gold ETC (LON:SGLP), which saw $930.0 million in outflows during the month.

SGLP was the only UK-based gold fund that made the list of the ten largest outflows. Mainland China saw three of the ten largest outflows, while Germany and Switzerland saw two apiece.

However, despite the dip in fund flows, Ash suggests that demand for physical gold remains strong.

"November’s ETF outflows contrast with stronger Western demand for physical gold, with private investors buying the dip whether as vaulted bullion or coins and small bars," he says.